A break down about Biden's struggles: polls, politics, and predictions

[00:00:00] Welcome to The Break Down with Brodkorb and Becky, a weekly podcast that breaks down politics, policy, and current affairs. I'm Becky Scherr. And I'm Michael Brodkorb. We are continuing our conversation from last week surrounding the first presidential debate.

[00:00:25] As expected, the pop ballot has been swift and significant, so today we have brought in two of Minnesota's greatest political minds, Mark Drake and John Rilow. Many of you will remember John from his frequent panel conversations on all things presidential campaigns.

[00:00:40] John is the executive director of the Minnesota Jobs Coalition and has long been active in Republican politics and campaigning. Mark Drake is joining us for the first time. Mark has worked for Senator Coleman and Governor Palenti and has held senior communications

[00:00:52] and research positions in support of presidential, statewide, and local political candidates. With John and Mark we will break down recent polling and how the state of the race stands the week after the debate. We will get into the frenzy among Democrats frustrated and concerned with Biden remaining

[00:01:06] in the race. And we will break down what we have seen from Biden and his team over the past few days and where Democrats go from here. Thanks for joining us. Enjoy the show and have a great, happy and safe 4th of July weekend.

[00:01:20] So there has been massive fallout, breaking news every minute, all sorts of evolving scenarios going on surrounding the presidential debate. And we're really excited to have John and Mark here with us to continue our conversation from last week.

[00:01:35] So I want to start by getting into a little bit of the numbers and the nitty gritty with the CNN poll. Trump leads Biden 49 to 43. There's a whole lot of different things that come from this, but I think we can certainly

[00:01:50] get back into who has what kind of support. But I want to go into a little bit of what this poll showed us when it comes to Joe Biden. I think the 75 number is the most devastating.

[00:02:28] I think every moment we get past this debate, it's becoming worse and worse for Joe Biden. And the question is are potentially even on this podcast is that I'm going to fully break open and we're hearing some news about that.

[00:02:39] But I think that the number that's most significant is the objective of this debate, which was pushed by the Biden campaign was to in essence reset the race. He was losing to Trump. The objective of this race was to reset it and they didn't reset it.

[00:02:53] And it's actually, it's starting to slip more and more away from them. So this campaign is hemorrhaging. I think there's serious issues, but I think that 75 number is the one that's going to be the most challenging.

[00:03:04] And I think that this is a presidential race unlike something we've never seen before in modern time. We're just in largely uncharted waters and we'll see what happens as the days continue to move. Mark, does it surprise you that 75% of those polls said that they think that Democrats

[00:03:22] would have a better shot if it wasn't the sitting president running for a second term? It doesn't really surprise me. I think that the debate performance from President Biden on Thursday was just historically a complete disaster.

[00:03:36] And I think if you looked at that number, it was probably close to what two thirds before the debate. So it has jumped up as you mentioned, but I've been trying to find historical precedent

[00:03:45] for this and I look back at, I'll give you two recent examples I've come up with, but you look back to 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape broke and you had a number of calls for Trump to exit the race. Obviously that didn't happen.

[00:03:57] He stayed in the race, but you had some similar kind of dynamics going on in that campaign. And then I was thinking about 1972, of course, George McGovern was the Democratic nominee. He picked a guy named Tom Eagleton who was a senator from Missouri as his running

[00:04:11] mate and Senator Eagleton had had some mental health issues. Back then he had elective shock therapy. So he was dropped from the Democratic ticket. The Democrats got together and they picked a new vice president, Sergeant Shriver, and they lost 49 states.

[00:04:29] So those are the two precedents that I've been able to come up with. And do I think Biden gets off the ticket? Absolutely not. I was I was just very briefly to that point. I had looked through one of my books in my library and found the

[00:04:43] Theodore White's analysis on the 72 race. And McGovern was famous for that race in 1972 talking about he was a thousand percent behind Eagleton. It was interesting lesson. I was watching CNN and there was a national one of the national fundraising

[00:04:57] directors for the Biden campaign and a big donor of his campaign on CNN. And he said he was a thousand percent behind Biden. And so just that thousand percent number has some historical context. But yes, good data points, Mark. And we've also seen Biden's approval rate dropped.

[00:05:13] It's been a little bit all over the map, but it is at a new low. A year ago today, it was at 41 percent. It's now at 36 percent. And then we are also seeing some of the numbers coming out of here.

[00:05:23] And I want to get your guys's take, John, we've seen a lot of different people and you were just sharing with us some internals as you are in your experience. Who do you think or what are you seeing when you look at these Democrats, the alternative Democrats?

[00:05:37] If Biden is not the candidate and what we're seeing in the polling. So I think there's a lot to be said about the fact that none of these folks who are being talked about replacing him really have any name ID, with maybe the exception of Kamala Harris.

[00:05:51] But I don't know how much that really holds. We're still a ways away from the election. And the second that you become your party's presidential nominee, you're in every single news story. You're on everybody's screens. People know about you.

[00:06:05] I think the bigger risk for the Democrats is that none of these people, again, with the exception of the vice president have been vetted fully, have really been through a race like a presidential race where they dig through everything in your background. There's legal vettings. There's campaign vettings.

[00:06:22] So you're less concerned about the name ID. I think as you look at those polls, the Democrats have really found themselves in a Kobayashi Maru. There is really no win as you look at this. You are either sticking with a candidate who I think if the Democrats

[00:06:40] are being honest and they're not on the record, if you're talking to people in your text messages or on background are saying we have really big concerns about President Biden. They also have really big concerns about what it means to go change,

[00:06:56] change at the top of the ticket and make a last minute change here. And I think Mark's looking at historical precedent is a good one. It makes sense. The thing that is most unique about this when I look at it is that if you

[00:07:12] think about that Access Hollywood tape, that was in the end of October. This is really the first time that you've had a crisis like this. We've all seen people have bad debates. We've seen people have bad nights. We've seen people have bad news drop on them.

[00:07:26] But it's it's always close enough to the election where you don't have a choice. You get back on the team, you suck it up, you do what you can to get through the election in this case, they've got five weeks to figure it out.

[00:07:39] So I think that's really the unique piece about the timing on this debate. Michael, I know you're jumping out of your skin to contribute something here. I just am excited because I can't wait to we start to these

[00:07:49] releases on video because when John said Kobe Ashimaru Mark twisted his head like a puppy dog, you I don't know if you necessarily understood that's a Star Trek reference and as much as we're a pro Star Wars podcast,

[00:08:02] I love the fact of the different perspective and John coming in with the Star Trek reference Kobe Ashimaru. Fantastic job, John. Joe, and would you believe it if I told you I had never seen an episode or a movie of Star Trek?

[00:08:15] That one's just made its way into the pop culture lexicon. And I think we can claim that one away from the Trekkies and we'll just claim that one for the world. I'm all I'm totally a fan of taking anything away from Star Trek

[00:08:29] and having it just be Star Wars. John, even further props to you. Great job. I do want to rattle out some of these numbers if the choice for the Democrat nominee changes, some of the names that have been floated.

[00:08:41] So again, Biden Trump is 43 49 Kamala Harris versus Trump would be 45 47. Buttigieg is 43 47 Newsom 43 48 and Whitmore 42 47. So Harris is the one that does have that closer. Now she obviously does have a little bit more name ID than a lot of these folks.

[00:09:00] And she really does bring in the women away from Trump. So she is slightly stronger against Trump because of the women votes. She gets 50 percent of those women voters over Trump versus 44 that Biden gets, which I think is telling that that is what it looks like.

[00:09:16] Harris is also really underwater in this her approval for favorability, 29 favorable 49 unfavorable with just 22 percent saying they have no opinion or haven't heard while the other ones are almost 50 percent, haven't heard or have no opinion of those candidates. Any insight on that fact?

[00:09:34] I know John, you spoke a little bit to the name ID and the work that would need to be done there. If somebody else jumps in the race, whether that's Harris or one of these other name folks, if we'll chat through the how that could happen later,

[00:09:46] but would that be an issue or because they are the Democrat nominee, the name ID kind of fixes itself? Mark, any thoughts on that? I just think this whole discussion is premature still. Biden has spent his life aiming for the presidency. He ran in 80 80. He ran in 2008.

[00:10:04] Those didn't go well. They told Obama told him to stand down, not run for 2016. He finally wins. And I just think he's a chip on his shoulder. He's listening to his wife, his sister. He has a close inner circle and I just.

[00:10:20] I don't see him stepping aside if he does. The most sense to me would be to run Harris and hope for the best, maybe getting any Bashir on the ticket, somebody like that to try to balance it.

[00:10:30] But I just don't see Biden walking away, giving everything I know about him and how we've used himself. Michael, just in looking at this scene, pulling this is the first indication that I've seen and in John and Mark and Becky, please chime in.

[00:10:44] But this shows based on this new polling that's come out that Harris would do a little bit better against Trump. And so that's, I think, significant because I think the question has always been is can you we can get into more process stuff later on?

[00:10:59] But at least right now, I think is this is a significant moment just in terms of this polling because obviously we're getting more data on how people are viewing his performance, how people are viewing Biden's performance.

[00:11:11] But also the head to head with the head to head with Trump, Harris is doing the vice president is ostensibly doing a bit better. And so the question is this start? Is this going to create more of a bit of momentum?

[00:11:25] Because I think one of the discussions was, OK, you so you want to replace Biden, great, but who show me a candidate who can win? Show me a candidate who that who can defeat Trump?

[00:11:36] I think for the first time, the vice president may be in a stronger position. Is that fair to say? It looks like that when we also look at where she ranks among independents. She gets 43 percent among independents versus Biden's 34 percent

[00:11:52] independent women, I'm sorry, which is also very significant. That is nine nine more points there than the sitting president is getting there, taking those back away from Trump. Very significant. The question is the question is if not Harris, can it go to someone else inside the party?

[00:12:11] I think right now, I don't know if it could because, Mark, as Mark, what's the largest voting block inside the Democratic Party? Yeah. During the 2020 campaign, Michael and I used to have a lot of conversations about how it was going and people forget now.

[00:12:23] But Obama or sorry, Biden was basically counted out after he came in what fifth and New Hampshire. Correct. And I said to Michael, I wouldn't write him off yet. South Carolina is coming up and the strongest voting block in the Democratic Party is African American women.

[00:12:36] And then Biden took off from there. So I think it would be very hard politically for them, for the Democrats to replace Biden with anyone but Harris. I just think that'd be very difficult to take that away from an African American woman. It'd be very hard to do.

[00:12:52] Because she is the vice president. That's breaking news, Mark. She is the vice president. Thank you for that breaking news. We have continued to see follow from Democrats at all levels. And one thing that we saw this morning before we were taping this

[00:13:06] is Jake Tapper was reporting that the afternoon of Monday, July 1st, Democrat governors held a call that was actually organized by Minnesota's own governor Tim Walls for the DGA. It was said that there was no staff on the call,

[00:13:18] no White House on the call, but largely stemmed around their concerns or wanting to have a conversation or meeting call with President Biden with the White House or the campaign, but specifically that none of them had heard from President Biden and wanted to have a conversation with him.

[00:13:32] As we started taping this, we, Mark shared that it is indeed a meeting has gotten scheduled tomorrow so that will be Wednesday, July 3rd at the White House with Democrat governors. What goes on here? Mark, John, who's got the inside scoop fly on the wall

[00:13:47] of what this meeting is about and what to expect. Yeah, it'll probably shock you to find out that I am not the most well sourced person when it comes to the inner workings and conversations happening within the Democratic Party

[00:14:01] and their governors, but I think they're trying to get answers that everybody's trying to get answers to. And you come out of the debate last week and frankly, the campaign has been out there gaslighting people. They have been out saying it was a bad night.

[00:14:16] Watch him at give this speech in North Carolina. Watch him give a speech yesterday evening about the Supreme Court. As far as I know, nobody's accused President Biden of not being able to read the fact that he could stand there and speak off a teleprompter

[00:14:31] in front of a friendly audience and gave a speech for four minutes last night. I don't think anybody has any concerns about his ability to read. We wouldn't be having this conversation if that's where we work.

[00:14:43] But I think going into the debate, we knew who Donald Trump was going to be. I think that he probably was aided a little bit by some of the changes to the rules and getting that microphone muted.

[00:14:55] He was relatively toned down for what we're used to with President Trump. The problem that they have is that Joe Biden was so much worse than they feel. So it confirmed what everybody thought about Donald Trump,

[00:15:10] but it confirmed that they were I think it was worse than they could have imagined with President Biden and nobody can get answers. And the White House is just out there saying he's fine. He's fine. And I think that people want to verify that for themselves,

[00:15:24] especially when you're talking about senators who are going to be on the ballot with him, governors who are going to be on the ballot with him. And I think that this conversation will likely be more of a conversation

[00:15:35] and trying to get their finger on the pulse than them encouraging him to do anything one way or another. At the end of the day, this is a decision that only one person can make. And as Mark indicated, all signs are pointing to Joe Biden isn't going anywhere.

[00:15:50] And now it's just a matter of what do we do to make the best of that bad situation for them? Mark is, aside from any other things, an expert on Watergate. And this has a very Watergate type feel to it.

[00:16:02] The senators walking up and having a conversation with Nixon in the White House. Can we just talk about the optics of this for a second? There are governors, by all accounts, that are racing to the White House right now to have an in-person meeting with the president

[00:16:16] in essence to kick the tires as to whether they're confident as to whether he can lead, be the nominee for the Democratic Party against Donald Trump. Is there not a discussion? Can we have a discussion on how they unring this bell?

[00:16:31] Because the mere act of them going there, going to the White House, having these conversations, it's very difficult for me to think about how if that meeting goes well, let's say that meeting goes well, just the political theater of them traveling and going to the White House

[00:16:47] and doing, in essence, a wellness check, kicking the tires on Biden to see if everything's OK. I don't know how that at the end of the day that the that movement Biden comes out ahead because it's going to be

[00:17:02] everyone's going to see that everyone knows what's going on. And so even if the governors or whoever is there feels good about their conversations with Biden, hasn't the damage already been done? Is this is are we at a point here where the kind of the steps

[00:17:17] that the Democrats are taking is going to potentially create a situation where Biden can't recover? Your guys just take on that. I threw a lot in there, but it seems to me the act of going there just the act itself could be creating some problems for Biden.

[00:17:30] I think they have to do it. And I think they're all going to come out and they're all going to have the party lined, which is bad night. He just needed a cough drop. He just did one of those recoloc off drops and everything would have been fine.

[00:17:42] I think that's pretty predictable. I don't think they come out of there and say, it's we have to dump Biden. He's totally out of it. They're just not going to say that. This is going to be very orchestrated.

[00:17:52] And I think the name of the game my kids play a game. It's called Keepy Uppie. It's from the TV show Bluey where they hit a balloon in the air and they try to stop it from hitting the ground. That's what's going on here.

[00:18:04] They're just trying to keep Biden afloat right now. But the Biden line seems to be if you remove Biden, you're creating more chaos and more problems. So we have to keep Biden. But my question is, so these governors go then, what's the press conference?

[00:18:20] So let's assume, Mark, you're saying is true and I want to get John's take on, and of course, Becky too on this. But they go tomorrow. They have this meeting and let's assume everything goes well. They're reassured, independent of Mark's kind of being a political theater.

[00:18:35] How do they come out after that meeting and sell the American public, sell the Democratic Party that are concerned right now and not then participate in this further gas letting? What do they do to just exude the concerns that people have?

[00:18:51] And I think to your point, it's even goes beyond that, right? Because they have painted themselves into a box on this. And the idea of sending surrogates out to say all is well. President Biden is fine. That's not something that's new this week.

[00:19:07] They've been doing that for the last year. And they have been out there saying he's fine, he's fine. And they really set themselves up for this in the couple of weeks leading up to the campaign when videos were starting to go viral.

[00:19:21] And they went out and they said these are cheap fakes. President Biden is sharp as a tack. He's on his game. And then you put him out on the stage and all the voters can say, was that 90 minutes of cheap fakes?

[00:19:34] So you're asking them to ignore what they saw with their own eyes. And I agree with Mark, they don't really have a choice but to try and do this. But the real problem is that they're not saying anything new. They don't have the trust.

[00:19:47] And when President Biden was out on Friday, one of the forceful lines that he tried to deliver was I might not be as good at walking as I used to be. I might not be as good at debating as I used to be,

[00:19:59] but I'm good at telling the truth. And the voters have to look at that and say, that's BS. You have been telling us and your staff have been telling us and elected officials within the Democratic Party have been telling us

[00:20:12] that you are sharp as a tack, that you are fine, and you've been dishonest with us about that. And I think getting lost in all of this is we're talking about his performance within a 90 minute debate. We're talking about his ability to campaign and make it to November.

[00:20:29] But this is a four year term where he is the sole individual with the nuclear codes. We need to start having a conversation about, OK, let's assume that he can get to November. What does the next year look like? What about the year after that?

[00:20:43] What about in three and a half or four years? Because this is not an issue that goes away the day after the election and just not being Donald Trump is not going to get those independent voters back.

[00:20:57] So they've got a real problem and I don't think this solves anything. Mark is absolutely right. They just really don't have a choice but to go do it. John, that's spot on. Michael and I have talked about the age of both of these candidates

[00:21:09] compared to George W. Bush and Obama and Clinton and what we've had in the past. And it's just astounding because even if we take away what we know about anything, the likelihood of a significant health catastrophic health event for somebody 79 or above is just really high.

[00:21:30] And so it really is just concerning when we look at that. Going back to the governor's meeting, I think it also needs to Michael pointing out the optics, I think is is really great because we are going to see

[00:21:41] every single one of them traipsing into the White House. We're going to get all this big parade of governors. But it's really significant when we talk about, yes, they do need to do it. I get it that they're getting all of these questions they need to see for

[00:21:52] themselves and whether they come out united or not remains to be told. I tend to agree with Mark's prediction that they will. But the fact of think of right now for my day job, we're trying

[00:22:04] to organize event with two senators and a couple of Congress members of Congress. The amount of emails and conversations we have to try to get this two week or two months down the line, the significance of a dozen plus Democrat governors wiping their schedule, flying across the country

[00:22:20] to have this meeting is really telling. It really is a significant thing to think of what had to be moved and what hoops had to be jumped through to get this done for them to go sit down.

[00:22:32] And again, are any of them going to have sit there and say, Mr. President, you need to drop out? I don't know that it will get there, but very anxious to get those sources, whether they're not John, but other sources that talked to the reporters

[00:22:48] and let us know. Michael. One thing I wanted to ask all of you is about campaigns and gaslighting, but also the fact that this campaign and something that's going on is it's not just in it's not just a Biden campaign problem.

[00:23:01] There is a problem sometimes with campaigns taking and getting outside of their bubble and get getting outside of the world in which they are. And what I wanted, the things that's so interesting about this debate

[00:23:14] rights now is going on is that there is a lot of criticism about the Biden campaign in terms of their willingness to listen to outside help. And this happens a lot in campaigns. One of the things that it happens, it's happened to Republican campaigns.

[00:23:26] It's happened to Democratic campaigns. I think it happens on all campaigns. And one of the things I think that's coming out in this process is the disconnect between the campaign advisors, the campaign leadership, some ways, the candidate and the American public

[00:23:40] and the voters because in this scenario, I think the polling is overwhelming when you're looking at 75 percent. And then you're in the discussions that's going on and some of the reference that the Biden campaign is made to the bedwetting brigade and people on podcasts.

[00:23:55] I probably think they were referring to us, Becky, the people that were podcast alarmists, that's very likely they were referring to us. But we're offering offering some armchair analysis and some things. There is a disconnect going on right now.

[00:24:07] I think between Biden himself in some ways, I haven't met the man, but it appears that there is and the campaign and everyone else that's out there and that's observing this. And it came out last Thursday night. We all saw it. But is there something about campaigns?

[00:24:22] You we've all experienced them in some ways that make them not very agile sometimes as shifting as that maybe they should be. Well, I think you get when you're in a campaign and a lot of the time you just you get locked in.

[00:24:34] It's very insular at times because you're so focused on what you're doing and any criticism or critique, you know, could be perceived as disloyal. And I think that we're seeing that with the Biden campaign where they've attacked people like James Carville and David Axelrod,

[00:24:51] who God knows no one wants to see Trump in the White House less than those two. But they've been, you know, absolutely slammed by Biden and his team for suggesting, hey, this may not be the best idea. This guy is going to be 86 years old.

[00:25:07] And I know, you know, the Biden team leaked to the press. They called they called Axelrod a prick for suggesting. I don't know if I could say that on the pod, but they said that last year.

[00:25:17] So this is a family podcast and we've never once had that type of language on here before, so I hope you're happy. It's now explicit. I'm sorry to all the women and children that are listening in the young families. We are not dainty little ladies. We can hear.

[00:25:30] But I completely agree, Mark, it's a tough place to be. I'm not envious of those folks that have to make that decision as public figures of what to do here because you have your own credibility on the line,

[00:25:42] whether you allow it to continue to be a part of this. That's something Mark, I also would ask you. So we were talking about Kamala Harris before and how she'd be the best one to go up. Do we then need from her to find out?

[00:25:57] She's obviously participating in this gaslighting, right? Is she implicit in this? What did she know? How much interaction does she have with the president to know how he is cognitively and was that a surprise to her? Which it's just tough, but is she implicit?

[00:26:12] And would that be come down on her from the delegates? Yeah, I think Kamala Harris and everyone in the Biden administration, the Democratic Party deserves criticism for spreading this fairy tale that everything's fine and Biden is a sharp as attack.

[00:26:29] Joe Scarborough was out there a couple of months ago saying he's known Biden for decades and this is the sharpest he's ever seen him. It's just that he's going to be 86 at the end of a second term. And is there anyone who really believes that?

[00:26:41] So Kamala Harris, I think she's in a tough spot. I'm sure she's seen a lot of things behind the scenes that would validate what we all saw on Thursday night. But obviously, she's in a position where she can't talk about that

[00:26:54] or be be candid about that for obvious reasons. We did also just see the first sitting member of Congress that came out asking Biden to withdraw from the presidential race. Representative Lloyd Doggett, Michael, you alluded to this or not even alluded.

[00:27:10] You said the thing is the dam going to break. Is this the first of what you expect to be many? Or do you think this dog is going to be out on the limb by himself? I think we are seriously living in history right now.

[00:27:23] And I know we're always living in history, but this is truly historic. And I think having this first member of Congress come out, the events that are going to happen tomorrow with Democratic governors and other prominent Democratic elected officials

[00:27:36] and party leaders going to the White House for this kind of kick the tires. Checking on the checking on Biden, I think is significant. And for anyone to say that they don't know what's going to they know what's going to happen, I think is a challenge.

[00:27:48] I think Mark and John and I think we should get more into discussion on and with you, too, Becky, of course, of what what are options that are there. But I truly think that we're in uncharted territory here, particularly with the ever growing concerns.

[00:28:02] And this is going to be a minute by minute situation. I could see as Mark, I think correctly laid out the it's a bit of political theater tomorrow. And is it truly is it meant to be

[00:28:13] as someone in the media said, is tomorrow going to be an attempt to put a band-aid on a bullet hole? I don't know. But it's clear that the Democrats realize that they need to do something and there's action being taken.

[00:28:25] I just don't know if how much we can predict because based on the numbers, I when I'm wrestling right now in my head is I'm seeing these numbers from CNN. I'm seeing these poll numbers. I'm seeing the activity that's going on.

[00:28:39] And I understand the process more and we I'm going to learn more by our discussion. But I still think it's tough. But I also think that the situation is so murky. It's so unpredictable that I can see a variety of scenarios happening.

[00:28:53] And I think the best we can do is discuss developments as they happen and break them down as much as we can. But I think it's going to be interesting to see because the dam, I think, is starting to break.

[00:29:03] The question is when we have the when we have the significance of the elected officials going to the White House tomorrow, is that going to be enough to stop it? Is that going to is they're going to be able to build the dam back up,

[00:29:15] stop the bleeding, stop the hemorrhaging and start to contain this problem? I just simply don't know yet. I want to talk through two scenarios here for the remainder of the show. First, let's clue in on Biden digs his heels in. He's going to be the nominee.

[00:29:31] He's going to be the Democrat candidate and chat a little bit through what we've seen from him post-debate and the path forward if this is the case. Last show, Michael and I chatted a little bit. We've talked a lot and with John on a previous episode about Trump's

[00:29:48] influence down ballot and how he will impact down ballot races across the country. It had never really crossed my mind to have that same conversation about Biden and Biden's impact down ballot. I think this is largely a big part of probably why these governors are going.

[00:30:03] It makes sense. Governor Walls would be nervous about how this is going to impact down ballot for the sake of the single party rule up at the Capitol. So chatting through a little bit. So as John said, Biden had a really good enthusiastic speech in North Carolina

[00:30:19] the day after the debate, of course, reading a teleprompter. This is how we've seen him succeed in Excel and he can read enthusiastically. That is a feat when you can apply them for that. And he really, we saw a big line of attack of coming out of it.

[00:30:33] The Jill Biden, if I see on TikTok one more time of Trump lies. Trump lying and Biden telling the truth is clearly something that they are trying to push. And we can look into that CNN and Trump or Biden does come out on top when voters

[00:30:49] who want an honest president, that is Joe Biden. We know the polls are showing that. They saw they launched a new ad on Monday highlighting Trump's lie. Just from the debate ends with Biden saying, I know right from wrong. I know how to tell the truth.

[00:31:02] And when you get knocked down, you get back up. They've also spent more in the 48 hours after the debate, spent 10 times as much on Facebook and Instagram ads as they did in the previous months. They're really leaning into this. There certainly is a path for Biden.

[00:31:17] Voters' memories are short-lived. We have an upcoming interview with Stefanopoulos that might be telling. But Michael, what's your thought on Biden? What he's done since the campaign? And if he can move this forward, is there still a path for Biden?

[00:31:31] I'm going to let our other guests answer first, but I just wanted to give you a bit of breaking news on the subject, Becky, is that Senator Tammy Baldwin running for reelection in Wisconsin will not be with Biden when he's in the state on Friday.

[00:31:46] And so exactly to your point, exactly to your point that there is a down ballot concern now. And here you have Senator Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Biden's going to be in the state and she's not going to be campaigning with him.

[00:31:56] And a reason I want to raise my fingers because I wanted to give you a breaking news example of what you're specifically discussing. And it's significant about the down ballot race is something that Republicans have had raised concerns about, but Democrats had it.

[00:32:10] But I'll go over to the guests now for their answer to your larger question, Becky. That's really telling leading up into this, unless you have some very significant family crisis or something going on, you were on stage with the president when they are in your state.

[00:32:24] That's, wow, that is very shocking to me. Mark, you do a lot of campaign work, have worked for a lot of members, understand this kind of down ballot. Do you think that Biden is going to have an impact down ballot?

[00:32:36] And do you think that he, if people like Baldwin and others start peeling away, what's that look like? I think at this point in the campaign, there's no question Biden's a liability for these other candidates. And the problem is Biden is not Benjamin Button.

[00:32:50] He cannot reverse his aging. And I think it's probably going to only get worse and become more noticeable and his absences from certain things are going to be more noted. You think about the debate.

[00:33:03] He was at Camp David for a week preparing with Ron Klain and the Democratic parties, experts in debate prep, and that's the result they got. So is that going to look better in September? Is that going to, is he going to be more cogent?

[00:33:19] Is he going to have more mental acuity in six months in a year and two years and four years? I think the answer is pretty obvious and that's reflected in the polls. And I think, you know, we haven't talked about it yet, but Dean Phillips

[00:33:30] was really the only elected official in the United States who had the courage to run against Biden. Now he didn't do well, but all these questions that everyone's asking now, he raised them many months ago and he went nowhere, but to his credit, he raised him.

[00:33:47] And not only, yeah, he got a tax significantly for it. It was really brave of him to do that. And you could tell, we had the opportunity to chat with him the day after he launched his presidential debate or race.

[00:33:59] And he said, it didn't have to be me. I was begging, pleading anybody to step in here. And he really saw the train going off the tracks before anybody did. Unfortunately, it didn't do it back then. They would have a lot smoother path. John, you work on campaigns.

[00:34:16] This is what you do. You work on down ballot races. Your thoughts? So I think a couple of things. First, looking at the people who are starting to call on the president to step aside and are not necessarily being on stage.

[00:34:30] If I was advising a candidate, the first thing I would have done on Thursday night during that debate is call my pollster and say, when can we get into the field? I think the snap polls that we saw over the weekend, those were a day,

[00:34:45] maybe two snap polls are really not that informative long term. So as the news started to trickle out, I think what there were 50 million viewers who watched the debate, I talked to a lot of people who shut the debate

[00:35:00] off really all that they saw was the beginning with Biden started to tank. And they said, I can't watch this. They shut it off. So the first real taste that we're going to get is probably today, tomorrow we'll see some better polls over the weekend.

[00:35:15] But people are probably getting those surveys back. But as far as the down ballot implication, you know, this is something that I'm not sold on the idea that Biden staying in the race is an anchor to the Democrats.

[00:35:28] If you go back to that Access Hollywood tape, if you go back to going into the election, I can't remember. I think it was 538 or the New York Times had Clinton at what a 70, 75% chance of winning that freed a lot of swing districts, Republicans

[00:35:46] up to come out against President Trump to pull their endorsements back to run as being a check on Hillary Clinton. And I'll be very curious what the Democrats decide to do if they decide that the best thing for their races is to pivot and say, I'm going

[00:36:03] to run a race on being a check on Donald Trump's agenda and concede this race, or if they decide to give Biden a big bear hug and say, we're going down on the ship together. But I think they're going to need to figure that out.

[00:36:16] And right now, the thing that we're all hearing is we need to look and see what the polly says. We need to look and see where the shakes out. We've got a couple of weeks to figure this out.

[00:36:26] The absolute worst thing that can happen on a campaign is there's so many moving pieces. There's so much breaking news. It's like you're drinking from a fire hose that you can get stuck in kind of that paralysis of waiting to see what's going to happen.

[00:36:42] And really, we're not that far away from the general election. We're not that far away from the Democrats' nominations and conventions in Chicago. And people don't have the luxury of saying, let's see what happens. I think Republicans are we're plenty fine to say, we will sit here.

[00:37:00] We'll watch the palace and treat. We'll watch everybody try and play West Wing. If they want to talk about a brokered convention, have fun. But we can go run our campaigns. We can run against Biden's economy. We can talk about immigration. We talk about inflation.

[00:37:15] We talk about crime, whatever it is. We've got all summer to go talk about Republicans' plans while they figure out what they're going to do. And the Democrats really don't have that luxury of saying, let's wait and see.

[00:37:27] But I'm not sure that it necessarily is a killer, but they've got to get rid of that boat anchor around their neck. And I don't know what their appetite to come out and say, I'll be a check on Donald Trump looks like, because that's not an

[00:37:39] easy thing to say about your party's nominee. So scenario two here. We Biden gets out of the race in some way. Let's chat a little bit through kind of the mechanics of this. All or almost all of the delegates are selected for the DNC

[00:37:54] and National Convention in August. And so these delegates right now are bound, legally bound to vote for Joe Biden if Joe Biden is still in the race. So how does this work? How what could we see? Could you see somebody nominated for the floor?

[00:38:08] Do we have any ideas, any insights? Mark, you've been around the block with National Conventions. Any insight of how this would go down or how a new nominee could be selected at the DNC convention? Biden would have to release his delegates and say it's wide open.

[00:38:22] Anyone can run or I would like to see everyone get behind Kamala Harris or something like that and she would have to pick a running mate. And but he'd have to release his delegates. And I think that's pretty unlikely.

[00:38:35] So yes, in this scenario, and I think that's the rules have changed over the years and it's over various election cycles. And so again, the delegates as they are with Trump, they're bound for Trump on first ballots and the same with Biden.

[00:38:52] And so the problem is that both. So in this scenario, Biden has enough delegates to be the nominee. He is the nominee of the Democratic Party. And so he would have to. So there is no process for our listeners. There is no process that I'm aware of.

[00:39:06] And please, the three of you chime in that Biden can be denied the nomination at this point. Correct? There is no process that allows. There's no secret rules. There's no clause. There's nothing where they can that where they can take Biden away from being the nominee.

[00:39:23] Is that correct? Yes, he would need to step aside. He would need to release his delegates for anything to happen. John and the other kind of thing in there is you use that word they and that's a word that I'm seeing a lot of people throwing around

[00:39:36] is they need to get rid of him. Right. There is no they there. There is Joe Biden. There is no smoke filled room. There's no back room where this can happen. But even more to your point on those bound delegates.

[00:39:50] Let's remember that in Chicago, that is largely performative. The Democrats have scheduled a actual nomination in the election for before that because there's a law specifically, I believe, in Ohio where the convention takes place after the deadline for the party to submit names to be on the ballot.

[00:40:10] So they're going to have to go through that before they get to Chicago in order to have somebody on the ballot in Ohio. And they're even talking about moving it up past that. But I believe that the first week of August is that deadline in Ohio

[00:40:24] to get their name in this will be settled by the time they get to Chicago. So no big circus and chaos that will be erupting on the floor, a little disappointing. I think one thing that not a lot of not everybody knows, too,

[00:40:37] is that these delegates are largely picked by the presumptive nominee or the sitting president. It was the same thing in 2020 when I worked for the party and the Trump campaign has their say. Obviously it is elected by the folks in the state convention here in Minnesota

[00:40:52] and across their other electing conventions. But either way, even if Biden does step down, it will largely be Biden supporters and Biden's team that will have the biggest say from my perspective of who then steps up.

[00:41:07] We really like you said, no breaking news here unless Biden gets out. There is no way to replace him. There is one note that if the candidate left the race, this is from an article I read about the DNC rules.

[00:41:19] If a candidate leaves the race after the convention, then the Democratic National Committee is empowered to fill a vacancy and the national ticket after the convention under party rules, after the party chair consults with Democratic governors and congressional leadership. Michael. There's no mechanism within side of the party

[00:41:35] to wrestle the nomination from Biden. That means that Biden has to agree to step back and then open up the process for the delegates to decide who they want to nominate. I think it's pretty clear that based on the allotment of who the delegates are,

[00:41:50] I think Kamala Harris, the vice president, would be the frontrunner to get that spot. And he could certainly, I think his endorsement and his pick would be the most significant. It would become in essence the de facto nominee pending approval by the Democratic National Committee.

[00:42:06] My question is about the money that's been raised. I have the number around 91.6 is what I was hearing on TV last night that there's roughly 91.6 million dollars that the Biden campaign has right now. If Joe Biden is not the nominee, where does that 91.6 go?

[00:42:23] Because I've heard questions as to where it could be transferred to. There's some questions as to whether it could be transferred to Kamala Harris. And so there is a practical, aside from the very significant internal party rules to get someone else to be the nominee,

[00:42:38] there's a practical reality about the fundraising numbers. And where does that 91, where does all that money go? Is a question if any of you guys have a perspective on where that 91 million dollars goes, because that's a huge hurdle, because funding these campaigns, aside from changing the nomin,

[00:42:54] changing the candidate in the summer is significant, but then finding a way to run this campaign and have money to do so will also be a challenge. All I can say is in my experience, I don't know the legalities of what is allowed and not allowed.

[00:43:07] I would have to imagine it would go to state parties and the national party to use, but there are, I think, certain restrictions of what that can be used for and in more capacity. I'm not sure if Mark or John have any more insights

[00:43:23] on the legal constraints placed on that. Yeah, I think, and I was thinking back to this, but in 2002 I worked on a race. Bob Torres-Sell, he was scandal plagued New Jersey senator and he dropped out of the race and they put Frank Lautenberg in

[00:43:38] and Frank Lautenberg won the race, but Torres-Sell, he dropped out, he sat on his money. I remember people really upset about that, but I'm pretty sure, I could be wrong, but I was pretty sure he could have moved that money over to a political action committee.

[00:43:52] And he didn't do it. He used it to pay legal bills or something. So I think I'd be able to move that money somewhere. Yeah, I was surprised when I heard the discussion last night on TV about the difference between where they could go

[00:44:06] because I think my logic tells me that it could go to, would stick with the campaign and Harris being the de facto headman of the campaign would have a say in that, but I think it's open to debate. John, do you have a perspective

[00:44:19] on what happens with that money? Yeah, so my understanding is that if the nominee becomes Vice President Harris, that she can use that money that has been raised, but if she's not the nominee, then you are pretty limited and it can go to the jail,

[00:44:33] but also it can go to a super PAC. They can accept unlimited money, but really that doesn't help you with the candidate side of things. It will certainly be interesting. We probably will be talking about the governor's meeting on our next episode.

[00:44:47] There's breaking news I have to imagine. We'll see more coming out from different individual Democratic leaders, especially those in some battleground seats. Any last perspective that you guys want to leave us with, Mark, I'll start with you. Going forward, we talked a lot about Biden being really insulated.

[00:45:05] If you were a betting man, does Biden get out of the race or are we gonna see the Biden-Trump matchup in November? And if it is Biden-Trump, who comes out on top? We're gonna put a pin in this and come back to this.

[00:45:18] I mean at this point, everything I know about Joe Biden, everything I know about his history as he stays in the race, he's not gonna have Tim Walz. I mean, given everything he's been through in his life and he's the president of the United States,

[00:45:28] that's Tim Walz's opinion really gonna change his mind. If Tim Walz says you need to go, I just, I don't believe it. Now if his wife or sister say that, maybe that's a different story. But it just seems like the time for these conversations,

[00:45:42] this should have happened after the midterms and it didn't really happen. And Dean Phillips was the only person to raise his hand in class and say, hey, this could be a substantial problem. It's just really hard to see Biden getting out

[00:45:53] at this point and it feels like reckoning is coming for the Democrats for running him again. I think it was a close race. I think maybe Trump had a slight edge before the debate, but it definitely feels like after the debate,

[00:46:04] Trump has opened up a pretty sturdy lead here. So if you think the elections tomorrow, you think Trump comes out on top? Yes, absolutely. John, you think Biden gets out and how do you think if he stays in the race, how does the November outcome look?

[00:46:22] No, I think President Biden stays in the race, stays on the ballot, digs in his heels. And I'm looking at this, I just don't see a path to winning if President Biden is the nominee and getting those voters back who he was able to cobble together

[00:46:39] to get a coalition to barely get across the finish line in 2020. Michael, you agree? I agree. I think it's very difficult from a process standpoint for Biden to get out at this point. I think it's very difficult. I think the discussions are happening,

[00:46:54] but I just think from a process standpoint, it's very difficult. I agree with Mark. These were discussions that should have been happening a long time ago. And I will just say that some of this, I do think some of this falls to the Biden campaign.

[00:47:08] I think some of this falls to the President himself. I also think some of this responsibility falls to the media. I think the media has been, I don't wanna say complicit, but I don't think the media has been as forth as they could have been

[00:47:23] about what was going on with Biden. And when it spilled out on the national stage at the debate last Thursday, they couldn't hide from it then. And I think that there's been a lot of discussion about Biden's competency, his mental clarity. And first of all,

[00:47:39] and I think those are valid concerns. I appreciate the manner in which we've discussed it today because all of us have been respectful in how we've discussed the issues. But clearly what we saw on stage is concerning. What we saw on stage last Thursday, independent of partisanship,

[00:47:53] the problem for the Biden campaign is the next four years. And as Mark articulated, Biden's mental clarity and his strength and his stamina is not going to improve over the next four years. And so it really becomes a question of does he in, is he fully in control?

[00:48:12] Is he in a strong position to lead? Not just now, but for the next four years. And so I still believe which we've discussed over the last few episodes, I still think this is Trump's race. And I think that he is in a very strong position

[00:48:25] to win this race. And I think the events of the last few days have been an absolute perfect storm for the Biden campaign. And I don't see how that's going to improve. And I agree with you all. I think it's very unlikely that Biden gets out.

[00:48:41] It does boggle my mind how an individual can sit through. I talked about this with Senator Mitchell as well, how you can sit through this barrage of criticism and so many people coming down on you. Just how do you not accept that as the reality?

[00:48:57] What's the saying if there's a crazy person on the bus and everyone's looking at you? There's some saying there. But I really, it just boggles my mind. I do want to also, Mark just sent White House Chief of Staff is holding an all staff call tomorrow at 1230.

[00:49:11] I have to imagine that's probably a zip your lips if you're not supporting the president get out. I don't know if anybody has anything else that they expect that to be, but I would anticipate that's could get it in line.

[00:49:22] We've seen some leaks from the White House press or from the White House staff already talking to some reporters. I read an article out of that, a lot of them largely called in sick on Friday and it was pretty empty White House

[00:49:34] and a lot of doom and gloom around there. Thank goodness for Twitter and our reporters having sources everywhere. I expect that we'll have a little bit of fallout. So we'll wait and see what happens from the Democrats governor's meeting from the White House Chief of Staff,

[00:49:47] all staff meeting and go from there. Sounds great. Thanks for having me. Hey, thank you guys so much for having us on interesting talk and we'll keep an eye on it moving forward. Thanks guys. We want to thank you for listening to The Breakdown with Broderick Rebecca

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[00:50:16] The Breakdown with Broderick Rebecca will return next week. Thank you for listening.