A break down about Royce White's scandals, presidential polls, the '24 deciders, and Wheel of Fortune

[00:00:00] Welcome to The Breakdown with Brodkorb and Becky, a weekly podcast that breaks down politics, policy and current affairs. I'm Becky Scherr. And I'm Michael Brodkorb. We are a little all over the map today with a variety of topics. We will start out by

[00:00:24] breaking down the recent news and baggage surrounding Rice White and has the strategy or lack thereof around its campaign. We will break down the status of presidential polling with Biden taking the lead in a Fox News poll for the first time. Then

[00:00:37] we will break down a Washington Post article titled The 2024 Deciders, Who They Are and What Makes Them Tick. And we will end by breaking down the end of Pat Sajak on the best show in the world, Wheel of Fortune. Thank you for joining us and enjoy the show.

[00:00:50] Well, Becky, I want to acknowledge that the listeners might hear a little bit something different in my voice this week. I haven't nothing changed with me other than I've got a

[00:00:59] new setup. I've got a new microphone. I got a new home office that I'm working on for our podcast. We're going to be doing more video stuff down relatively soon here. But I just want to acknowledge that. I also wanted to give a shout out.

[00:01:10] I put out a tweet a couple of days or so ago acknowledging that we were behind a little bit on the schedule and this was why because I was renovating my home office. I should clarify

[00:01:19] the renovations and all the fantastic work that was done in my home office was done by my daughters. I got twin daughters who are painting drywalling machines. They're so good at it.

[00:01:31] We did some work in my garage a couple of years ago and they took to mudding and sheet rocking and putting up drywall. And so I did a bunch of renovations in my office this week, but my

[00:01:43] daughters who I just want to give a shout out not going to mention their names to embarrass them, but I just want to give a shout out to my daughters to let them know that the podcast

[00:01:50] sounds great today. All the work you did in the office is wonderful. And I'm so proud of you because you're doing things at your age that I can't do right now. And I'm so proud

[00:01:59] of you for that. And everything is sounding great and it's looking great. And when people see it here soon, I want to just make sure that they get the proper credit and not me

[00:02:07] because I shouldn't be allowed in Home Depot. I should not be allowed in Home Depot. There's things that I can buy at Home Depot. I go into Home Depot and I say to myself

[00:02:17] is today the day I'm going to die because there's so many things on the wall that I shouldn't do. I shouldn't be allowed. But I took my daughters to Home Depot. They picked out the paint, picked out supplies. They knew what equipment we needed, mudding and all

[00:02:31] of the equipment we needed. They ran the entire operation and they did such a fantastic job and so proud of them. And if it sounds good, thank them because they did all the

[00:02:41] hard work to make it sound good. And when it looks good, make sure to thank them. Absolutely. It looks great. And I got to say, I have major dreams and aspirations to be all able to do all this DIY stuff and home improvements. It's like my favorite

[00:02:54] accounts to follow on Instagram and see all of that done. So mad props that they are still in high school and are getting that done and have all of that knowledge and know how that will get them well far in life. And they're great at it. So yes,

[00:03:06] and they'll be happy to give you tips. Okay? Perfect. Thank you. Let's get into it. We are kicking things off with a typical topic the last couple of episodes. US Senate candidate from the MNGOP, Royce White. There has been, it seems as though

[00:03:28] every day some new ridiculous almost unbelievable article or story comes out. The last couple of days we have seen it come out that he owes over $100,000 in child support. We have seen him write or have somebody write Trump won on his head during a three on three televised

[00:03:50] basketball game. And the Daily Show did a clip highlighting all the chaos surrounding Royce White and his campaign. Michael, I know we've talked a lot about it, but what's your initial take

[00:04:00] on a plethora or any choose one of the wild chaotic stories that we have from the last few days? It's sad, but not surprising. We should again disclose that you and I have made the

[00:04:12] decision separately, but we've agreed because this is the breakdown. It's that we're not going to platform Royce White. It doesn't mean we're not going to talk about the race because we're going to continue to talk about stuff, but we have recognized that there are some issues.

[00:04:24] There are some substantive issues and that we will reference back. We'll link back to the episode. And I think we should probably do that in any episode that we talk. If you don't mind,

[00:04:34] if we talk about it, I think we should link to that episode so people have that kind of disclaimer disclosure. We're not going to interview Royce White. We're not going to platform him, but we're going to certainly talk about the race. I think what honestly what

[00:04:45] we are seeing is exactly the reason why we don't want to talk to him is because he doesn't live in reality. And when people interview him, it spirals off in just these absolutely bizarre kind of tangents and conversations. And it's been sparring up. And so he did

[00:04:59] some interviews with some national media and those have been glampooned pretty aggressively. We are now he was endorsed, it was I think the third weekend in May. So it's been over a month since he was endorsed. Since he has been endorsed, and Becky, I'm going to just flip

[00:05:15] this portion back to you for a second. You've worked with comms, I've worked with comms, but you much more recently. It's been over a month since he was endorsed. And his campaign

[00:05:25] has not come up with a clear, consistent answer as to why payments to a strip club appeared on his FEC reports. Independent of the legalities of that which we can get into. He does not have

[00:05:38] a consistent message on that. That is a problem. Don't you agree? Absolutely. Because either if it was a mistake, it should be simply wrong card was pulled out of the pocket. This was a personal spending. Here's our amendment we have filed with FEC. It's clearly not that

[00:05:57] cut and dry. Even there was the David Pakman interview that we watched and he did verify that he was there. It just was simply spent on food. So you're right. It's something if it

[00:06:12] is as cut and dry as a mistake, it should be that cut and dry as a response. Clearly it's not. Yes. And so I think, so let's talk about that for a second because one of the problems that I think,

[00:06:23] one of the challenges I think that you and I saw with Royce White, and please again, I don't speak for you but try a minute if you think my take is wrong. This campaign has just

[00:06:32] not gotten off the ground. And so they're not able to answer a consistent question on this. There are some character issues and some controversies surrounding Royce White as the individual. The child support, some of the legal issues in his past, some of the court findings,

[00:06:48] all of his kind of I would say those are character slash legal issues. But he's now the endorsed Republican candidate for the United States Senate from the state of Minnesota. You would think that if he is as energetic and as competent of a candidate,

[00:07:04] that an infrastructure would be built around him, that people would be coming and able to help facilitate answering these questions. The reality is they can't because I don't, I fundamentally believe that Royce White's problems are not easily explainable. That's

[00:07:19] the reason why they don't have a consistent message. That's why he's given 10 different explanations of what's been going on here and they haven't been able to get a grounded message. But as we know, after campaigns are endorsed, particularly statewide campaigns are endorsed,

[00:07:34] usually they attract talent to come in and staff up those campaigns. And it's clear that Royce White's campaign has no capability of messaging, responding or answering any of these questions. And that's exactly part of the reason why we didn't want a platform because there's

[00:07:53] no operation there. There's no professionalism in that. And all I see that Royce White is doing is he's playing the basketball tournaments with crazy messages on the side of his head. And let's just be clear about something. We started this podcast in November of 2022.

[00:08:11] And so we did not get into some of the narrative that I discussed in the 2022 race, the governor's race when Republicans, Scott Jensen's campaign was super excited that they were flying banners over the state fairgrounds. They thought that was going to

[00:08:26] be the big winning message. If you're flying a banner over the state fairgrounds, we've gone from flying a banner over the state fair to what would you call it? Body graffiti or body art

[00:08:36] on the side of your head. If you're playing basketball. Now I will say to you something, I'm a bald guy and I just thought about this. I don't know if it's an effective delivery

[00:08:49] message from a campaign standpoint, if I'm putting a political message on the side of my head. I just don't know if people are going to buy the message independent of what's there

[00:09:00] because if I think I'm putting a message on the side of my head for somebody voted like this, I don't know that they're going to, I don't think the voter is going to say that's creative. I'm going to read what the message says. I think they might say

[00:09:12] if the person's putting a message on their side of their head, probably not the best way to deliver a message independent of what the message is. Right? Yeah. Now, had it been like Roycewhite.com or something like that, it's a little entertaining and funny. This was clearly,

[00:09:29] it's frustrating to me because if we even if we put aside all of the scandals and all of the hundreds of thousands of dollars that have unpaid child support and strip club misuse of campaign funds and domestic violence or restraining orders and all of that,

[00:09:45] if we put all of that to side and just focus on the issue and the message that he was trying to get across here, really that's what you're choosing to spend time and energy on. Trump won.

[00:09:57] We're still on this. We've talked about it when we see exit polls and caucus polls of how many people believe that's the case. I'm not denying that fact. That fact remains. There are way too many people that believe that Biden is illegitimately our president right now.

[00:10:14] Correct. My biggest frustration with all of this is again, put all of that stuff aside. If this was truly who it should be a new stand up US Senate candidate, where's the forethought? Where's the planning? Where's the campaign tour? Where's the messaging and policy papers

[00:10:33] and any event? Even if you just go scroll through his social media, it's just gifts and inappropriate and him just slinging responding to these interviews like the Pacman interview with his incredulous responses of how dare you say that even though I said that.

[00:10:50] It's just, I don't, like you said, there's just not that operation there and it's really frustrating that when an opportunity now again, I don't believe that Amy Klobuchar is going to be taken down the cycle perfectly honest, regardless of what Republican is on the ticket.

[00:11:07] However, there is still an opportunity to message to voters. There is still an opportunity to have somebody who is a statewide candidate who goes to events who could be a smart, thoughtful, articulate leader on the economy, on immigration, on public safety, on schools

[00:11:24] and education, on all of these issues that are really important to voters that we could still be educating voters and informing them and giving ideas and having a vision and a mission

[00:11:35] for what our party should stand for. And we just don't get that. And that's really frustrating to me for somebody who is our only statewide candidate this cycle and it just stinks. Not our only, it's the only statewide race on the ticket.

[00:11:50] Yes. And that's the value of it being. Let me go back to something that we've not talked much about Jason Lewis, but Jason Lewis was a member of Congress from the second Congressional. He was a candidate and he lost and he was a candidate for United

[00:12:02] States Senate. I've disagreed with Jason Lewis on issues before. Jason Lewis was a value added candidate when he ran for the United States Senate. He ran for the United States Senate in 20, in 2020. And he was value added to the ticket. He was running against Tina Smith. He

[00:12:21] was value added to the ticket as a statewide candidate knocking off Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006. And I would say that the federal races are probably the biggest challenges for Republicans to break through and get to those races. When Jason Lewis ran

[00:12:37] for the United States Senate, I disagreed with him on issues in his case. He was value added to the Republican ticket. He worked well with others. He was collaborative in his message.

[00:12:47] You could integrate him into the campaign. And he was, I think I would say a net benefit to the overall Republican ticket. I don't think Royce White will be because what he does is

[00:12:58] right now what he's doing is he's doing podcast interviews. He's trolling people on social media and he's writing bizarre messages on the side of his forehead as he's playing in basketball tournaments across the country. Now, I will say to you, campaigning is a

[00:13:13] full-time job. If you're going to run for statewide office, you have to campaign full-time. And I would say that the incumbent, when they're doing their work as the United States Senate, that's the advantage of incumbency is because you get to be the senator or be the

[00:13:28] incumbent or be the governor or be the member of Congress while the campaign is going on. And that's just the benefits of incumbency. He's not he's working and trolling and doing stuff. The other thing I would say, and I made a, I had to make this policy announcement

[00:13:43] for the first time, which is I'm on X slash Twitter. I've been on there for, I think since 2008 when I first went on there. So I've been on there for almost 16 years. My policy has always been

[00:13:55] that DMs are off the record and it's an antiquated policy. People used to put that, the LCs used to say, I used to always say RTs do not equal endorsement stuff. But I've

[00:14:04] always had the policy that you can send me something on direct message and it's off the record. Meaning, so I will get tips, I will get suggestions, I will get frequent criticism, sometimes recipes, other things. I'll get comments. Those are always considered off the record.

[00:14:19] Royce White has been sending me the most bizarre, inappropriate direct messages. I woke up early this week to take one of my kids to a practice they needed to go to and at 324 in the morning, I had a direct message from Royce White just with obscenities

[00:14:40] in it. And I'm like, he's up at 324 in the morning. He's the Republican endorsed candidate for United States Senate. First of all, he's up at 324 in the morning. Nothing ever good happens past 10 o'clock. He's up at 324 in the morning and he's sliding into my DMs and sending me

[00:14:56] stuff just vulgarities. I couldn't believe it. And I've made the policy that the only person who doesn't get to send me DMs off the record anymore is Royce White. And I've used lost that policy. Now, one of the places, Becky, you'd be surprised to know, and again,

[00:15:13] these are off the record, but I will say there's a number of your family members who disagree with your hand take and they get that safe space in which to send me messages off the record.

[00:15:23] Those are private. I'm not going to disclose names and sources, but Royce White has lost that privilege. Okay? He's lost it. Yeah, I think that's fair. And so I think, I think it's important and let me just separate the individual from the process because I think

[00:15:40] we're getting into a good space here, which is we're going to talk about the race. And one of things that we break down in this podcast is communications and strategy and tactics. And I think the strategy independent of platforming the individual, I think the strategy is going

[00:15:55] to be interesting because I think that this is going to be a real make or break moment for the Republican endorsement process. And so I want to continue to talk about the difference in the strategy because Frazier is running, we interviewed him last week. He's got a professional

[00:16:11] operation and obviously there's this juggernaut out there in Senator Amy Klobuchar. And I would agree with you as I've consistently said, it's an uphill battle to knock off Senator Klobuchar and the hills of size of Mount Everest. But I think we should continue

[00:16:24] to talk about the strategies and break that down because we're seeing some differences and I think that would be informative. But again, we're not going to platform the individual. Completely agree. And again, I just think that's what's really is a really good important

[00:16:38] thing. Again, like you mentioned, we just spoke with Joe Frazier. If you go look at his Twitter, it is actual articles about crime at the border and tagging Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar of why their views and voting has disappointed and let down Americans. He just talked again,

[00:16:57] we talked about how Senator Michelle Benson endorsed him. He tweeted today, Kenneth Qualls and former Senate Majority Leader Paul Gizilka also endorsed him. These are the things that we expect of campaigns. I'm all for doing something new and wild and crazy

[00:17:11] and fun and all about that. But there needs to be a strategy, there needs to be a vision and there needs to be, this is all supposed to be about policy and issues and how you

[00:17:19] and what you stand for can do better. Not just the fact that you believe because you are a young black male that you're going to be able to bring young people and black folks,

[00:17:28] black voters into the fold. I'm all about breaking into new areas, but we need to do that. You can't just, we're not identity politics, right? We're all about, we want to be about the vision and the mission and the true policies that are going

[00:17:43] to be impactful. And we're not getting that and it's really frustrating. And maybe we'll see something new. Maybe we'll see some policy papers come out or some different op-eds or something from Royce, but I am not overly optimistic on that. We'll see if any debates

[00:17:59] go down. That would be interesting, but I feel like we could probably predict how those go. Yes. And I will just say again, I think one of the most interesting aspects of our backgrounds, yours much more relevant and current is the operation stuff. So breaking

[00:18:16] down some of the strategy and discussing it, I think is going to be fun to do because I think it's good for our listeners. As we talked before, you worked in Washington. I haven't

[00:18:23] worked in Washington. So I like to hear those stories. I think it's informative. And so to the degree which we can break that down and look at that stuff, I think that's fun to do. But I certainly be holding my breath for any policy papers.

[00:18:35] I do believe voting, early voting for the primary does start very soon. June 28th. I would say, I would hope I would urge anybody involved with either of these set of campaigns do debates. Great for Frazier. He's going to come out looking great. Obviously,

[00:18:52] I think Royce likes any platform that he has the opportunity to talk and pontificate. So I think both sides want it. Let's hope it happens. It would be great to watch. And I am confident Frazier would come out on top.

[00:19:05] Again, not paid for not endorsing. Just met him for the first time on our virtual interview. But that's where my leanings stand at this time. I would agree. Let's keep talking about it. Okay. All right. We are going to move on to presidential polling. So this is going

[00:19:24] to be probably a pretty common conversation over the next couple of months. A couple different things to talk about. Let's focus first. I want to chat bringing up and I know you shared this tweet with me. Frank Lentz is a prolific poller, very involved as focus groups

[00:19:40] in polling all the time. And one thing that he just said in this clip that I want to chat about is this is again, Frank Lentz said to me, it's not that Donald Trump is winning so big in

[00:19:50] Iowa. That's not the story. It's that he's making it so close in Minnesota. Minnesota is a reliable democratic state. It votes Democrat in every presidential campaign and poll after poll. I see Trump within two or three points in Minnesota. I don't think the media understands

[00:20:03] exactly what's going on right now. What's your take? You agree? First of all, I have to say to you, I know every pollster it's a little bit of grain of salt. I think Frank Lentz is one

[00:20:15] of the most interesting people in politics and I would love to have him on sometime because he is just someone who I think he's not always right. Pollsters aren't always right. They're like meteorologists. They sometimes get things wrong, but Frank Lentz is incredibly

[00:20:30] interesting anytime he speaks and whether it's on and I rotate through the cable station. So when I see him on him, I was like, I thought this was very interesting, a very interesting comment because I think in again, our kind of analysis or my kind of take is

[00:20:46] this we've seen poll after poll. We saw a couple of things. I think there were four or five polls from KSTP. KSTP did a couple rolling polls of the tightness of the race. I don't think

[00:20:58] they announced all of them, but for four or five months, KSTP's polling has shown the race is in a dead heat between Trump and Biden. Star Tribune came out with a poll along with

[00:21:09] Carol Levin and NPR, which we talked about I think recently on an episode that showed the race close and now Frank Lentz has seen this. And so I fundamentally believe that

[00:21:19] Minnesota is in play. I think right now, I think the race is close. I think if the election were held today, I think it would be a very close race between Trump and Biden. Here is the

[00:21:33] here is and help push back if you think I'm wrong. This is this scenario that I think if you look historically at how Republicans have done. Republicans have done well in Minnesota. Republican presidential candidates have done well in Minnesota under the following scenarios.

[00:21:49] Number one, there has to be dissatisfaction with the incumbent, the Democratic nominee. 2000 and 2016 are the most recent examples that I can find of there being close races between the Republican candidate, the Republican nominee for president and the

[00:22:06] Democratic nominee for president. And both of those, I think stem some dissatisfaction inside the Democratic Party. So to me, a Republican needs to in order for a Republican to be successful in this state, a Republican presidential candidate there needs to be division

[00:22:21] between the Democrats. And right now we're seeing that Minnesota had one of the largest voting blocks of uncommitted. There's a growing dissatisfaction. We've seen a number of stories of dissatisfaction with the Biden administration that Democrats have.

[00:22:37] There's talk of a lot of Democrats staying home. So that's going on. And number two, we saw in a recent poll general that there was much more excitement about Republicans, two to one, Republican enthusiasm and excitement about Donald Trump.

[00:22:51] Donald Trump was recently in Minnesota. There was a joint event with the party that was very unifying kind of the team. And we had Kip Christiansen and we had John Rolot talking about that, talking about that collaborative effort. And so it seems to be

[00:23:05] lining up historically what Republicans need to make Minnesota be competitive. The question is, Democrats can read the news too. They can analyze election results. And the question I fundamentally have is on election day, which side has amped up their support more?

[00:23:24] And so what needs to be happening independent of just polling is that there needs to be a ground game built. And so on paper right now, I think that the race there's clearly the race

[00:23:37] is close. Every available indicator says the question comes on election day once voting starts, not just on election day, but during the voting period, who is going to be better at motivating and getting their voters to the polls? And right now, I still believe that

[00:23:53] Democrats have a better operation to get their voters to the polls. We'll see what happens. But that's where my sense is on it. What's your take? I largely agree first about Luntz. I think that one benefit he has from his focus groups,

[00:24:09] he does if folks aren't aware, he does a lot, especially during debates that the dial, it's fascinating to watch people's real time reactions. But I think he really spends time with voters and actually listens to them. And then I think he relays what he has learned

[00:24:24] over the years. And yeah, any anybody got any context with Frank Luntz, let us know. But I think you're spot on. And I think this is something that we've been seeing over the last couple of years is the division on the Democratic side growing between their far left

[00:24:39] and moderate, something that I think Republicans have seen a little bit, we're a little bit further into that division and maybe are healing a little bit from some of that, where the contrast is very stark on the left right now. And I think I've long said this is,

[00:24:56] or believed that this is the way that Republicans can be successful as to finding where those wedges are, and really driving into those. And so I think there is a lot to be done on

[00:25:06] the messaging side. And we'll chat through some of that getting into a couple other polls here soon. But I think Minnesota might, as you said, Democrats are just their ground game is vastly more intricate and built up. At this point in 2020, the Trump campaign had dozens

[00:25:25] of staffers in the state, multiple offices around the state, and had a really well established structure that was getting out every single day. Now I don't know how closely they are working within the bounds of what's allowed with other down ballot races and part local

[00:25:41] party units and things of that sort. I have no doubt that there are Trump supporters out talking to voters and knocking on doors and that support, or that sort of thing.

[00:25:50] So I think it's really just going to come and see if they move resources here, what they do, if they spend money here, and how that goes because I think it's very possible. I think

[00:26:02] it all really does come down to what's going on in the moment and how things change. Because I do want to chat a little bit more about this Fox News poll also that came out

[00:26:12] that has Biden leading for the first time since October. This is something I think that the breakdown is pretty typical about Trump doing better among men, rural voters, white men without a degree. Biden does better with voters over 65, women and urban voters.

[00:26:30] But I think that it really, we are seeing some issues come out and shaping what is important to people. And for voters right now, the economy is in a better place. It's starting to feel like it's rebounding a little bit. Folks are having a little bit more optimism

[00:26:47] about things. Again, we're not out of the woods. Voters aren't completely wearing rose-colored glasses. But that's certainly the economy has largely played roles in presidential campaigns for the last number of decades. And that's something that a lot of folks had conversation

[00:27:03] after the 2020 election and how the pandemic had decimated the economy. And Trump as a result went from having a great economy to not and how that kind of probably played in the end.

[00:27:14] Issue top two issues for voters right now are the future of American democracy and the economy. And that seems is it interesting top two? Immigration. Explain why. Explain why you think that is.

[00:27:26] Why that I think that is. I think the economy always is a top one. People feel it every day in their pocketbooks when they get their paycheck, when they pump gas, when they go buy eggs. And then I think the democracy, I think there's a lot of concerns

[00:27:37] for folks truly about these two men who are candidates. I think for both sides, I think about mental competency and age and really what that means. I think they see the division of what's going on, the insurrection, how voters are going to take it.

[00:27:51] I think there are a lot of concerns of what is going on and what is going to come post-November regardless of who wins. I think those are valid concerns. I share those concerns.

[00:28:02] Yes. I think it's one thing I just want to go back to for a second. And you mentioned you talked about in 2020, the kind of the groundwork that was going on. You were active with the party at that time and could see that groundwork. And so again,

[00:28:16] one thing that people have to remember is the polls can the polls are going to go back and forth. The question is behind the scenes, who's mobilizing their voters? And so you could

[00:28:25] have a situation where Donald Trump, you could have a situation where Joe Biden is ahead in Minnesota on election day, but based on ground game effort that Trump wins or Biden wins.

[00:28:38] And so it really comes. So what I think we want to kill back a bit is that it's not just as simple as winning an election that you're up in the polls according to the media. There

[00:28:48] has to be a ground game and a mobilization going on. And I think to what you're saying and I'm saying, I think I'm seeing news. I don't know that we're seeing that level of

[00:28:56] fanned out ground game for Trump right now. So the environment is I think it's very fair to say that the environment is incredibly beneficial to Trump right now, meaning he is running in a climate in which it's the environment is receptive to his candidacy that there's that

[00:29:13] voters are interested in hearing Biden is I think also probably running against the best opponent that he could be running against. And so there's a market for Biden to think both candidates are having challenges. The question is going to come down to who is

[00:29:28] what side is not only motivated, but who's mobilized to get out to vote. And that I think is going to be the ultimate question. But the polls, I have a feeling that every week

[00:29:39] we're going to be talking about polls and it's going to be up and down and so on. The one thing I will want to ask you about is do you think the polls, the change in the

[00:29:48] polls to flip has anything to do with Trump's conviction? I don't think it's convenient because of timing that it does feel that way. I don't really think so. I think that you don't think that people because Trump was convicted, that's a reason why there's a bounce.

[00:30:03] I would need to see a little bit more a couple more weeks because I think what we saw pros or pre conviction was all of the folks polling saying that's not going to play in.

[00:30:14] We don't care. We can still support him. The Republican side voters. I think I need to see a little bit more to really dive into that. But again, I want to also real quick play devil's

[00:30:24] advocate to what we both just said because so 2020 Trump lost Minnesota by about what? Six, seven points or something of that sort along those lines. 2016 correct me if I'm wrong, but he only lost by about 1.5 under 2% right in Minnesota. I feel like it was very close.

[00:30:43] And he did not have that ground game operation in 2016 here in the state. He did not have the dozen of staffers. He did not put in millions of dollars of infrastructure in the state

[00:30:53] like he did in 2020. So there is certainly the swings that go back and forth. Do I think the money and infrastructure helps and is necessary? Yes. Do I think that the down ballot house Minnesota house races could potentially swing that for Trump?

[00:31:09] Yeah, I do because I think that there is also a lot of voters, independent swing voters, moderate Republicans who are going to go to the polls and say, screw the single party control. We need Republicans back. We've been screwed over for the last four or two years

[00:31:24] in Minnesota. So I'm going to go Republican up and down. Minnesota, it's so hard. It's so hard to figure out what's going to happen. How many people are going to go vote, leave presidential, the president blank or write in or vote for RFK who apparently has,

[00:31:41] I believe the secretary of state is still qualifying, but he believes he's going to be on the ballot in Minnesota. That's going to be great for Royce White because he endorsed and he endorsed Donald Trump. He's going to have two candidates on the ballot that he endorsed.

[00:31:54] Yes, that is factually it is true. He did endorse both RFK Jr. and Donald Trump. So if you're Republican on listening to this podcast, just remember he's endorsed two candidates for president. Yes. And so I think, is it fair to say that in your experience, the polls,

[00:32:12] this is good news. First of all, it's good news for the podcast because it's not a blowout right now. We're going to have plenty of content to talk about, but I think it's good for Republicans and we're both Republicans, varying degrees, but it's a good environment

[00:32:25] for Republicans, right? Yeah. I think so. I do want to also before we move on, so we do have presidential debate next week. Very excited. We'll do a little preview about that.

[00:32:38] RFK did not meet the requirements necessary for that, so he will not be on stage at the debate, which while I think would be interesting, I am excited for it to just be head to head.

[00:32:49] And then I just want to list off a couple here. Emerson College did some polls in the swing states. Trump leads in all of them except in Minnesota where it is tied. So they

[00:33:00] have Trump and Arizona is up four, Georgia he's up four, Michigan up one, Minnesota is a tie, Nevada Trump is up three, Pennsylvania he's up two, and Wisconsin he is up three.

[00:33:11] Got a lot of time. A lot of things can happen, but it is right now if I would say that if the election was tomorrow, I think Trump comes away with it. Would you agree?

[00:33:21] Disagree. I think that yes, I would say to you, and yes, I think that if the election were held today, I think it would be a flip of the coin. And I don't know.

[00:33:34] I think it'd be an absolute flip of the coin. I would not be surprised either way, but right now I am surprised by again in the interest of full disclosure, I didn't vote for Trump in 16.

[00:33:44] I didn't vote from 20. I voted in the Republican primary in Minnesota for Nikki Haley. I'm not voting for Trump. I'm not going to be voting for Biden. And so I'm very,

[00:33:54] this election cycle, and this is what I was going to talk about is, yes, I have consistently said over the last couple of weeks that if the I thought if the election were held today that Trump would

[00:34:03] win. Doesn't mean I want that. But one thing I do want to just, you're going to just really appreciate this ass that I'm making of you because you really like to play devil's advocate

[00:34:14] and keep me in a straight line. I want to make sure that again, I'm not a Trump guy. And so I want to make sure that the conversations that we're having that were

[00:34:21] I want to, I obviously want to just ride the wave this cycle and see what's going on. Because I want to hear from some of these Trump voters and talk to some of these Republicans.

[00:34:29] And I am dedicated to making sure we have that space. We can talk to folks, but also as long as it's grounded in reality. But I think that there is something going on this election cycle that is going to be real interesting to watch. And I'm so appreciative

[00:34:41] of having this podcast to discuss it because I think it's going to be a hell of a ride. Absolutely agree. We are going to move on now to another article you alerted me to. So there

[00:34:55] was a Washington Post article called the 2024 Deciders, Who Are They and What Makes Them Tick? It's a first article in what appears to be going to be a series from Washington Post.

[00:35:06] They did a poll with this and have broken down a lot of this. This is a lot of information, but I just want to walk through it because I think it's really fascinating

[00:35:15] to when we look at the small group of people who really do decide who wins the presidency. And those are a small set of folks in a small group of states that are going to be deciding

[00:35:29] who is our president in 2024 or after the 2024 election. They went to, they are largely looking at these folks. They voted in only one of the last two presidential elections are between 18 and 25. Oh, this is just a second of it. I pulled the wrong list,

[00:35:47] but they are sporadic and uncommitted voters in key swing states who are likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the presidential contest. You saw this first. What peaked your interest when looking at this? In all seriousness, I immediately thought of you

[00:36:02] because we discussed an episode ago that you're undecided where you're going at. And I again, in being in totally serious, no, everyone should have the privacy of the ballot box. But it was an interesting acknowledgement on your part that you're where you're thinking

[00:36:15] on it. And so it made me think of this article because there are a group of people out there because I'm surprised by the undecideds. But I think there's a lot of people and I was just

[00:36:24] fascinated about that segment, the undecideds. And I think there's a number of people who are, if I may say it this way, unfortunately, let's pause for a second. I think Dean Phillips said it really well when he talked about it. We interviewed him when he was running for

[00:36:37] president that he talked a lot about how Americans wanted there to be a different alternative. And we had talked about that, that Americans looked at polling Democrats and Republicans wanted to be someone else other than Trump or by Trump and Biden. And we're stuck with,

[00:36:52] I think, a choice that Americans didn't want in the two party system. This is what we're left with. We're both, I would have been much more excited about a presidential race had it not been Trump. And I think there's some and Biden. I think there's Democrats that

[00:37:06] feel the same way. But this is what we're left with. We're left with Trump and Biden. And I think that there are a number of voters who are going to be deciding,

[00:37:14] I think potentially the lesser of two evils or the lesser of two, I don't want to be so harsh, but the lesser of two bad choices, which one is worse for them? And I just think that's

[00:37:24] disappointing, but it's an interesting group of people. And I just, it's going to be fun. It's got to be very fascinating to watch their decision process and this kind of polling. And

[00:37:34] I certainly don't want to put that, have that kind of expectation on you to share that type of I just think it's fascinating that this group is out there. And because I do think that there

[00:37:44] are a lot of people out there and my only take on it is that I think that the reason why I think people are not committed is because I think they're my senses. I think they're

[00:37:55] probably frustrated with the choices. They're like, I'm going to be picking which one doesn't bother me the least. And I just think that's too bad, but it's still a fascinating group of people

[00:38:04] to watch. Yeah, absolutely. So there one thing I'm going to say and I will be sure to tweet out this link. There is an online, excuse me, there's an online quiz that goes along with

[00:38:13] this poll and series where you can answer some questions and see how you stack up against these deciders. So I took it and I want to break down a little bit of some of that.

[00:38:25] One thing that one of the an individual professor of government with the schooling they use behind this said, you get the sense from the polling numbers that people sense the urgency of this

[00:38:36] election. They feel the electricity and the stakes behind it and they want to care. But the parties have nominated two candidates that deflate the public. And so this is really again, it talks about how in 2020 just 43,000 voters from three states, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin

[00:38:52] would have changed the outcome of the election. And that when we're thinking of the millions and millions of votes that are cast in the presidential election, it really is going to come down to these individuals who largely don't know where they stand. They vote but they vote sometimes.

[00:39:06] So it's not 100% that they're going to show up. And again, that goes to the enthusiasm and motivation factor behind it. Some of these deciders lean one way or the other. They have what they categorize a double hater, which is three in 10 of these folks who

[00:39:21] dislike both choices and are really unclear where they're going to go. And I really just, I feel a lot of what some of these the angst behind some of these candidates of,

[00:39:32] I am going to show up. I am going to vote unclear really what that's going to look like at this point. But it's just frustrating. And a lot of the deciders in this article, again,

[00:39:42] they both 72% are not satisfied with the two candidates that are there. Most of them have decided that they would at least are going to be voting either for President Trump or President Biden if they show up. Surprisingly, one of the ones that surprised me most said that Trump

[00:39:59] would be doing would do a better job handling the economy. Most of them majority of them also did say that they believe Trump would do a better job handling threats to democracy, which was a little surprising to me. Wow.

[00:40:13] Yes. So that was a little surprising to me. But it is a really fascinating just look at the whole grand scheme of what elections are and really boil it down small. So we'll tweet out the article, we'll tweet out the quiz. And I think this is something

[00:40:28] that hopefully as the series goes on, we can continue to talk about because I think there's a lot of good things to really boil down of what these polls actually mean when we're talking about the people who represent the ultimate decision makers here.

[00:40:43] There are a couple more numbers I just want to throw out here though. So between 2016 and 2020, overall turnout in the presidential election jumped from 137 million to 158 million. Democrats got 4 million more growth and why Biden came out. During midterms,

[00:41:01] the opposite. Midterms elections in 2018 was 112 million voters and 108 showed up in 2022. So a stark decline in voter turnout. So I think all that to say, we have no idea who's going

[00:41:16] to show up. We have no idea who we are going to vote for when it happens. And so I like this breakdown because I think it helps try to pick the holes and analyze the overall

[00:41:28] polls that we're seeing from Emerson and Fox News and start to be in KSTP as well. Yes, and I think it validates a few points. Number one, this is going to be a very close election. And the fact that the media has already identified this pool again,

[00:41:43] in 2020, a shift of 43,000 votes from Biden to Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin would have changed the outcome of election. I think this is going to be an incredibly close election. I think turnout is going to be key. And I think it's very fascinating.

[00:41:58] Also, when we're going through some of this polling, I see a pretty sharp drop in midterms related to Trump. And it goes back to a point that I've made about Trump, which

[00:42:08] is I am challenged by any net benefit nationwide he has to the Republican ticket. Now we could, John Rouleau was great about pushing back on that in Minnesota, but I remain convinced nationally that Trump is not a net positive to Republicans. And we'll see on what happens

[00:42:29] for control of Congress, control of the United States Senate, control of the House, what he ends up doing. But I think there's certainly in analyzing some of the numbers, there's certainly a motivating group. Again, Trump motivates both sides.

[00:42:42] I think that and I think it's fair to say this election is going to be about Trump, which I think benefits Biden. I think it benefits Biden. If the election is about Trump, I think it benefits Biden. Again, I want to be consistent. The election were held today,

[00:42:56] I think I answered previously that I think I've been saying that for the last couple weeks, that if the election were held today, I think Trump would win. I do think the election is going to be about Trump. Because I think he both motivates and energizes certain Republicans.

[00:43:09] And he's also a great get out the vote for the Democrats. And so we'll see but the polling is great. And you just did a fantastic job breaking that down and sharing those links. I also want to

[00:43:18] say, this is what we've been talking about, Becky, I think we both have fallen into again, correctly if I'm wrong, we both have fallen into the we didn't want it to be Trump and Biden.

[00:43:27] But it is what we've been saying for even since last summer, that we were hoping it wasn't going to be this. But that's where we thought it would be. And it seems that there is at least an identified group of people out there that are significant enough that

[00:43:39] other another media media outlet has identified them and wanting to do some contrast because I think this is where the election is going to be decided on. Absolutely. And I think one thing

[00:43:48] I will say about the it's going to be an election about Trump, one thing we did see that come out some of if you go through this article again, and we look at some of the

[00:43:58] questions that were added asked when asked Do you approve of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as president and looking back to you approve or disapprove the way Donald Trump handled only 34% of the deciders approve of Biden, but 47% of them approve of Trump's

[00:44:13] handling of the presidency. So I think people's memory is short. And I think that it's really going to be all about what's in front of some of these deciders if they go, I think

[00:44:23] it's a little bit more of how their day how their week how their month leading up to that election truly looks like. And I think while it is going to be about Trump, and I think

[00:44:31] that there we continue to see some concerns with Biden and freezing and issues that with his mental clarity that I think are going to continue to come up as well. And I am very waiting with bated breath for this upcoming debate to see because I think pulling after

[00:44:47] that is going to be really interesting to break down and see if that impacts folks, if Biden's able to hold up with the bullying and barrage of I don't know, sleepy Joe comments from the president. We will see.

[00:45:05] I'm looking forward to that that first of all great job breaking down the polling. And number two, I'm looking forward to our preview next week on it because I was telling someone offline this week that I believe that the upcoming debate is going to be is probably

[00:45:18] the most significant debate and has the makings to be the most significant presidential debate. I think in modern time, it has the potential to be even as significant as Nixon Kennedy in 60.

[00:45:30] I think it has that it has all of the makings of that. It has all that anticipation because for all the reasons that you just articulated, it's going to be really fascinating to watch. So great job breaking that down. I really appreciate it.

[00:45:44] And we are going to end with a little bit of a different topic here, but related to watching television. Wheel of Fortune is my jam and Pat Sajak is no more.

[00:45:58] I'd like to just give you all the space you need just to talk about it. Tell me about it. First of all, let me just say it was I want a version. No, I want I noticed your post on

[00:46:07] social media. I wanted to talk about it. So please take it away. Just take the floor. So it was about a week and a half ago. It was his last day after 40 years. I have long we grew up

[00:46:19] watching it. My grandparents watched it. It was always on and we it was like we sat down and watched it as a family. And now I'm a big nerd and we tape it, record it, whatever you DVR it.

[00:46:31] I don't know when you tape it. How old am I? But we watch it every night still to this day and have it is great. My husband kicks my butt at it. I gotta say, I really try hard,

[00:46:42] but his mind just gets there a little bit faster. That's surprising for a Packers fan. Ooh, he's gonna love that one. There was even a line about it in my vows. One of our inside

[00:46:53] jokes, there was there's the typical RSTLE letters that are your main stay in Wheel of Fortune. And this woman, this was huge puzzle and started out and so enthusiastically shouted,

[00:47:06] K is the first letter in the public. K is not a very common letter and it was not up there, which is not silly. But if you watched with the enthusiasm that she's done it.

[00:47:16] But anyways, I was really sad to watch it end. I'm sure Ryan Seacrest is gonna be fine. But the real end of it, the second day, so the Thursday of Sage X last week,

[00:47:29] Vanna did a beautiful tribute video for him, which I totally cried during and hopefully will not cry as I regurgitate because that's embarrassing. She, it was really truly like they are friends, they are family, they like do graduations and baptisms and trips together.

[00:47:47] And they're just like so entwined in each other's life. And who doesn't love somebody who's worked together when you've been together for 40 years to see that's more than just on studio there. It was really lovely. And then Sage Jack had a beautiful sign off himself.

[00:48:02] He really wanted to leave before he was unable to do anything else and he's gonna go on and he's still, he's not like just packing it up and going sing on beach. So we'll still see more

[00:48:10] Pat Sage Jack. But it was a sad time. I thought it was incredibly, just, it was just a poignant moment and it was, I wanted to acknowledge it. I have, I watched Wheel of Fortune, my family watches. My wife is a big wheel watcher. My kids watch it.

[00:48:26] Was interesting when I was watching the final episode, Pat Sage Jack was talking about kids learning how to read and the word associations and that happened. I know what happened in my house with the kids watching it. And

[00:48:40] my wife is a huge Wheel of Fortune fan and she got the kids watch. She got my kids also were big Jeopardy Watchers and Wheel of Fortune. And so I just wanted to acknowledge

[00:48:49] it too. It was so sweet what you wrote and I just wanted to acknowledge it because I think it also, it just, it doesn't surprise me. You're such a nerd. And so it surprises me.

[00:48:58] It's just, it was just, it was very sweet and it was nice. And it's nice to know your family is doing it too. Again, my kids love to watch it. And I was also surprised because I

[00:49:07] grew up watching it too. I remember when Wheel of Fortune, when you won, you'd get the rotating, you could buy stuff and you'd have that much money left to spend and stuff. I thought it

[00:49:16] was great. It was fun to watch. It's not going to be on reruns, I think for a long time, but that was just a little bit. I got a little sentimental after you did because I realized

[00:49:26] it and my family watches too. I wanted to make sure that you got the opportunity to talk about it. Ryan Seacrest, your take on that? Just to be clear. I think Ryan Seacrest is very talented and works really hard. He's not the vibe I'm looking

[00:49:39] for. And C Jack is just a warm hook and he's so witty and I love his back and forth and the little times he picks on candidates. And it's just a good warm hug. And like you said, with

[00:49:51] about the kids learning the sight words and things, I love the stories over the years of immigrants coming and this being how they learned how to speak English. Is there a better testament to a game show than something like that? So I'm sure I will still watch.

[00:50:06] It is still, we watch pretty much any game show that's on TV these days. That's my jam. That's great. And so I'm sure we'll watch. He is great. He is talented. He is fine. He's just not Pat Sajak. Ken Jennings is great.

[00:50:23] He's just not Alex Trebek. Although I would say Ken Jennings is, I would give him an A and Seacrest like a B in my book for choice of the house. My kids, first of all, I thought it was interesting to talk about it gives a little

[00:50:35] bit of our listeners a perspective into what kind of makes you tick. And that was, I think it was a nice discussion because you are a big nerd and whether it would.

[00:50:44] So talking about Wheel of Fortune is just great. And the game shows, I'm a big game show. So it's great to know that there's a lot of households that do that. But I just remember growing up

[00:50:52] with Wheel of Fortune. I did not watch it, but it seems that all of us, my wife had that and it seems you had it too. Our grandparents or our parents watched it. And it's just a

[00:51:02] generational thing that's gone. I think it's going to be difficult for Ryan Seacrest to recreate it. But I think we should talk about game shows more. And I also think we should talk about entertainment and pop culture more because there's a lot of things

[00:51:14] that have been going on. But we should talk about that affair. But well, absolutely. When is the new episode with Seacrest? Are they just calling it Wheel of Fortune? They're not going to add any new feature. Yeah, I think it will just be the new season.

[00:51:25] So I think it will be usually they take the summer off and start back up. Maybe we can do a live show right after that first episode airs. And we can just break it down or just let it be great. So Becky, thank you for doing this again.

[00:51:37] Again, for a programming note, there's a debate next week. So we're going to probably do an analysis episode of the disc free, a pre-debate podcast and then we'll do something afterwards. Okay. Perfect. Thank you, Becky. Bye.

[00:51:52] We want to thank you for listening to The Breakdown with Broadcorps and Becky. Before we go show some love for your favorite podcast by leaving us a real and Apple podcast,

[00:51:59] Spotify or on the platform where you listen. You can leave a review or give us a shout out on our website or across all social media platforms at BB Breakpod. The Breakdown with Broadcorps and Becky will return next week. Thank you again for listening.