A Break Down of the Election Results

[00:00:12] Welcome to The Break Down with Brodkorb and Becky, a weekly podcast that breaks down politics, policy, and current affairs. I'm Becky Scherr.

[00:00:19] And I'm Michael Brodkorb.

[00:00:20] We are just a few days removed from the excitement of Election Day and are here today to break down everything we have learned over the recent days.

[00:00:27] We will kick things off by talking about the results here in Minnesota from the state legislature on up.

[00:00:33] We'll discuss the tie in the Minnesota House, what margins look like in some key races, and what is around the corner as we head towards 2026.

[00:00:41] Then we will spend the bulk of the show breaking down the outcome in the presidential race and how Donald Trump came out on top.

[00:00:47] Thanks for joining us and enjoy the show.

[00:00:49] Michael, have you gotten some sleep since the whirlwind of election night?

[00:00:55] Yes, I have gotten some sleep.

[00:00:56] First of all, the live stream was great.

[00:00:58] I watched some of it again, and I got a bunch of compliments for the four hours of the show.

[00:01:04] We had a ton of viewers at the end.

[00:01:06] The fact we were able to pull it off, first of all, we were both able to stay up that late, was surprising.

[00:01:11] We did it.

[00:01:12] That was four straight hours, Becky, of just coordinating and facilitating that, and it was just a blast.

[00:01:17] I also had a number of people, particularly in our circle, which I'll discuss off air, that didn't know that we had a live stream.

[00:01:25] And a couple of folks called me after the election.

[00:01:30] Are you processing it okay?

[00:01:31] Did you jump off a bridge?

[00:01:33] And I'm like, you want to know what?

[00:01:34] Becky and I had a live stream for four hours last night when the results were coming in.

[00:01:38] We handled it just fine.

[00:01:39] Yeah.

[00:01:39] And so I thought it was great.

[00:01:41] I'm so happy we had that memorialized.

[00:01:43] And that's one of the advantages of having a podcast and doing this is when there's events like that, we can memorialize our reactions live.

[00:01:51] And we'll always have that now for perpetuity.

[00:01:54] We'll have four hours of our reactions to the election coming in and the great analysis we got from Senator Benson and from John Rouleau and from Julius and yourself and what I was able to add.

[00:02:06] It was just a great experience.

[00:02:07] Yeah, I really enjoyed it.

[00:02:09] I am not known for a go with the flow kind of a personality.

[00:02:13] So as we put this together and not knowing what to expect and what was going to come and what we were going to talk about, obviously, we knew a little bit of what we were looking for and all of that.

[00:02:25] But it just worked out.

[00:02:26] It was really entertaining.

[00:02:27] I had a good time.

[00:02:29] And like you said, it's memorialized in us joining the country and wow, what is going on and trying to analyze in real time, which we now have a couple of days of reading articles and reviews and autopsies to get into all the nitty gritty of it.

[00:02:48] But had a really good time.

[00:02:51] And another election night in the books.

[00:02:54] One thing I will say is I think that you and I and I sent you a clip.

[00:02:59] I don't know if you watched it offline, but there are people who I'd love to get your take on this.

[00:03:04] There are people who I think when I think this is the advantage, I think, of our approach, particularly to politics.

[00:03:10] You and I have had some very sobering, calm and rational conversations about the election.

[00:03:15] And I think that's our approach to discussing this stuff from a data standpoint.

[00:03:18] We talk things out.

[00:03:20] And so I don't think either of us were surprised at what happened, maybe by the margins we can get into later, which I'll certainly add some context to.

[00:03:28] But I went into the election saying either side could win.

[00:03:31] But it was a flip of a coin.

[00:03:33] And we had talked a lot about the wrong track, right track and where this election was.

[00:03:37] And that kind of framed my thinking back up.

[00:03:39] I remember when we had Mark Drake on earlier this year.

[00:03:42] He talked a lot about the right track, wrong track.

[00:03:44] And that played out.

[00:03:44] And so all of those guests, this one thing I think is so interesting what we do is this isn't an echo chamber.

[00:03:51] You push back on me.

[00:03:52] I push back on you.

[00:03:53] And particularly since I endorsed Harrison Walls, we made sure to make sure that we invited additional perspectives in every week, at least once a week, if not more.

[00:04:03] We were getting, I think, rounded contextual conversations about what's going on in this election.

[00:04:08] And I think the one thing that you and I do very well is listen.

[00:04:11] And in listening and having conversations, listening, help frame our discussion.

[00:04:16] So that's why I think election night for us, we could be on for four hours and you weren't putting a noose around your neck and I wasn't putting a noose around mine and we weren't hanging from the rafters.

[00:04:27] We could process it and go through it because I think we're grounded in, we have a good sense of reality as to what was going to happen this election cycle.

[00:04:35] And I'm really proud of that discussion.

[00:04:38] Same.

[00:04:38] I've had, I've really enjoyed over this last year from everyone left center that we've talked to, people who are diehard Trump fans, diehard Harris fans, folks like myself that fell somewhere in the middle.

[00:04:51] And I think it's been, like you, I have always, ever since I got interested in politics, I've always been an avid supporter of folks voting.

[00:05:00] I'd rather you vote than vote for my party or my candidate.

[00:05:03] I think it's really important.

[00:05:05] And I've always thought that you can learn so much more about your opinions and your policies and your stances by talking to people on the other side.

[00:05:14] And I think that's so wild that in this day and age, that's missing from so many different circles.

[00:05:20] And again, I think even if we go back to our conversation with Jake Glow at the Citizens League, which is very nonpartisan, just meeting people where they are and having conversations where a person stands.

[00:05:30] It doesn't have to be about convincing or getting somebody over to your side, but just having conversations of why people think the way they think.

[00:05:38] And I think this is something when we talk about the presidential race and maybe where some of those gaps come, I think this is really telling of what we need to get back to in politics for candidates to be successful and for our parties to move forward.

[00:05:53] Couldn't agree more.

[00:06:22] Let's get into it.

[00:06:23] What are results for 2024 for turnout?

[00:06:25] I think we were one of the highest, if not the highest.

[00:06:28] Okay.

[00:06:28] That's what I assumed.

[00:06:30] I assumed we went back.

[00:06:31] I don't think we hit as high as 2020, which was almost 80%.

[00:06:35] But I do believe that we did surpass the midterms.

[00:06:38] Our presidentials obviously are significantly higher.

[00:06:41] We'll come back to brag about if we were indeed the top state.

[00:06:45] I think we were one of the highest.

[00:06:47] I just noticed that.

[00:06:47] But I think we were one of the highest.

[00:06:48] We can come back to that.

[00:06:49] My bad.

[00:06:50] Man, poor prep work right off the top.

[00:06:52] No, not at all.

[00:06:54] Getting into the state legislatures.

[00:06:55] I pulled in here our predictions that we did on Monday's episode as well.

[00:07:00] So we have the special in SD45.

[00:07:03] When we look at that, it does appear that I believe you were close.

[00:07:07] You were right on that one.

[00:07:08] It wasn't super close.

[00:07:10] The Democrat came on top.

[00:07:11] But the Democrats maintained the majority in the Minnesota House by winning that special in SD45.

[00:07:17] Nothing too wild and crazy there other than the amount of money that was spent on a state Senate seat.

[00:07:24] Yes.

[00:07:24] And it was.

[00:07:25] And you and I both called it.

[00:07:28] When we look at the Minnesota House, this is one place we did differ and neither of us were wrong.

[00:07:34] It was amazing.

[00:07:36] You thought the DFL were going to have them maintain the majority.

[00:07:39] I thought the GOP were going to flip it.

[00:07:40] But we are at a tie.

[00:07:44] We sit here with two races and recounts.

[00:07:47] And but it is sitting at 67-67.

[00:07:52] Could you even?

[00:07:53] It's astounding.

[00:07:54] And we should talk more.

[00:07:56] Both of us worked through the legislature at different times.

[00:07:59] And there was some overlap when we were both that were there.

[00:08:01] There's a really great history in Minnesota about the last tie.

[00:08:04] And we should talk about that maybe next week about some of the history and what happens and some of the shenanigans that can happen in a 67-67 tie in the House.

[00:08:13] It's going to be just fascinating.

[00:08:15] But I just have to say, and let's keep going through the predictions and I'll loop it in at the end.

[00:08:19] But you and I are just so close on what we thought.

[00:08:23] Yes.

[00:08:23] And I think it will be something for us to continue to watch as well because we know that indeed talking about the historical situation and what the parties decided to do then, Democrats and Republicans have to figure out how to work together on this.

[00:08:39] They're already having conversations.

[00:08:40] And we'll be certainly working towards some sort of resolution on how to do committee chairmanships, leaderships, everything that comes with a majority that we don't have here.

[00:08:51] But we'll cover that a little bit more in depth as we find out more and as we have more time.

[00:08:56] I want to also, speaking of a place where we're TBD right now, is when it comes to the majority in the Minnesota or in the U.S. House.

[00:09:04] There's still some races yet to be called.

[00:09:06] It is looking like Republicans should be able to pull it off.

[00:09:10] But we don't really know.

[00:09:13] And we predicted that.

[00:09:14] You and I both predicted that the Republicans would pick up control of the U.S. House.

[00:09:19] That is true.

[00:09:20] Yeah, we both predicted that.

[00:09:22] I think one thing that is really interesting.

[00:09:24] So right now it's 25 races yet to be called.

[00:09:27] The Republicans have 211 seats.

[00:09:32] Democrats have 199.

[00:09:33] You need 218 for control.

[00:09:36] So it is looking more likely that Republicans will get the majority there.

[00:09:41] But frankly, in our favorite line from election night, too early to tell.

[00:09:46] Too early to tell.

[00:09:47] And when we were last on, I think, what was so puzzling near the end was I think you had laid out that the Republicans, there still is a possibility that Democrats could retain, could win control of the House.

[00:10:02] I think the path is slim.

[00:10:05] But there is a possibility.

[00:10:07] But when we were last on the air at the end of our four-hour telethon, it was looking more likely that the House Democrats were going to take control.

[00:10:16] Is that correct?

[00:10:17] Yes, it was.

[00:10:18] The New York Times ticker, I think, had it at some 65%, 70% likely to be Democrats.

[00:10:23] When we look at, so there's some of these, let's see, there's about, of the 25 yet to be called, there's about 12 that are probably going to recounts that range, that Republicans have majority of, but range somewhere from 616 vote to 10,000 votes.

[00:10:41] When you're talking about these margins, it is really close.

[00:10:44] We have a couple close ones in Pennsylvania that Republicans did eke out by 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 votes.

[00:10:51] And so some of these margins are just really slim.

[00:10:53] And now that we have a little bit more, it does, and the ticker on New York Times does give the likelihood to Republicans.

[00:11:00] But only time will tell.

[00:11:02] We'll find out more in the coming weeks, and we'll continue to chat about it.

[00:11:06] But we did both say that we thought it was going to be Republican-controlled, but close.

[00:11:11] And I mean, we can just continue to pat ourselves on the back throughout the episode.

[00:11:16] I'm not going to lie.

[00:11:17] Yes.

[00:11:17] Yes.

[00:11:18] I mean, we did really well.

[00:11:20] Let's bring it back here to Minnesota and chat about our congressional seats, starting with the 2nd Congressional District.

[00:11:29] I predicted Craig was going to win by about 1.5%.

[00:11:33] You said Craig was going to win, but by a bigger margin.

[00:11:37] You were right.

[00:11:38] I don't know that you, when you predicted a bigger margin, predicted double digits, let alone 14.

[00:11:45] But I mean...

[00:11:47] Can I ask?

[00:11:47] Yeah.

[00:11:48] We both thought she was going to win.

[00:11:51] Was there...

[00:11:52] What were you...

[00:11:53] And I'm just curious because I think you're so wicked smart.

[00:11:56] What was your kind of instinct as to why you thought it was going to be closer?

[00:12:00] Was it because of the presidential climate or kind of what was it?

[00:12:04] I just really thought that I thought Tayrab ran a decent campaign.

[00:12:08] I thought he was an articulate, well-spoken candidate who had the backing of the NRCC.

[00:12:15] I...

[00:12:16] It just, to me, it seemed like it was going to be a year that I thought we were going to have some frustrations from some of the Democrats and...

[00:12:23] Or some of the voters against the Democrats and that they would still give it to Craig, but not...

[00:12:28] I'm just absolutely blown away by this.

[00:12:31] 14 points is just...

[00:12:32] Especially when we look at it against the presidential model.

[00:12:36] It just, again, goes to show how Minnesota is so bonkers in how our voters vote because obviously here is still one Minnesota.

[00:12:47] With the national wins behind Trump and Republicans, to have Craig, one of arguably always the most competitive, top 10 most competitive seats in the country, win by 14.

[00:13:00] We've often given her credit for representing the district and being a purple member of Congress and really taking hard votes and booking her party.

[00:13:08] And I think that obviously stands, but did you predict it?

[00:13:12] Did you ever thought it would be more than 10?

[00:13:14] No.

[00:13:14] No.

[00:13:14] And I'm curious.

[00:13:17] I think it's reasonable.

[00:13:19] It's reasonable.

[00:13:20] It's just as reasonable as to why.

[00:13:22] I thought the margin would be six or seven, maybe seven or eight.

[00:13:26] I did not think...

[00:13:27] There is no way that I would have predicted double digits.

[00:13:29] And I think we're both...

[00:13:31] I was curious about why you thought it was going to be closer because I think that helped.

[00:13:35] That was part of the reason I thought it was going to be too.

[00:13:37] Yeah.

[00:13:38] I absolutely thought that there was going to be.

[00:13:39] But just from a numbers standpoint, in 2022, she won by 17,000 votes.

[00:13:45] This time around, she won by 56,000.

[00:13:47] That is something that I think we both thought that she was going to win.

[00:13:51] Very clear that we both thought she was going to win.

[00:13:53] But this was...

[00:13:54] I think it's so interesting.

[00:13:55] It goes back to something that I said prior to the show.

[00:13:57] I've never wanted...

[00:13:58] I've never been more curious about how an election was going to come out in terms of the

[00:14:03] polling data.

[00:14:03] And this shows just an intensity that I didn't see in living in the second district.

[00:14:09] The reason why I thought she was going to win and it wasn't going to be as close as

[00:14:13] it was previously was because she was everywhere.

[00:14:16] She was physically...

[00:14:18] She was just simply everywhere across the district.

[00:14:20] She was dominating on TV.

[00:14:23] Angie Craig also, along with Dean Phillips, they were concerned about Biden.

[00:14:28] And they raised those concerns ahead of time.

[00:14:30] And they took some guff from their party for that.

[00:14:33] And so that is the reason...

[00:14:35] A combination of all those things is why I thought she was going to win.

[00:14:39] You thought she was going to win too.

[00:14:41] It's just I don't think either of us could have ever predicted that she was going to win

[00:14:46] by 56,000 votes.

[00:14:47] And what's interesting is that the second district, congressional district, is now gone.

[00:14:52] For Republicans, it's now gone.

[00:14:53] Angie Craig...

[00:14:54] And I had said that to someone prior to the election in somewhat of a forceful conversation

[00:15:00] talking about where I thought the race was going.

[00:15:02] Second congressional district is gone for Republicans.

[00:15:05] Republicans...

[00:15:05] And we can talk about that maybe later in the show when we go through some stuff, more

[00:15:09] about the kind of the state of things when we close things out.

[00:15:11] But the second congressional district is gone.

[00:15:14] And again, you and I both thought she was going to win.

[00:15:17] But in terms of where we were both off was on 56,000 votes.

[00:15:22] If you would have told me that Angie Craig was going to win by double digits, I would have

[00:15:27] probably laughed.

[00:15:28] And if I would have told you that Angie Craig was going to win by double digits, we would

[00:15:31] have laughed.

[00:15:31] And so we both thought she was going to win.

[00:15:35] But the margins are just astounding.

[00:15:38] Absolutely.

[00:15:38] And then when we look at the presidential data in CD2 as well, Harris only won by six points

[00:15:45] there.

[00:15:45] She just crushed it.

[00:15:49] The Trump vote, basically, there was the Trump vote in the second congressional district hewing

[00:15:56] up a bit.

[00:15:58] But in terms of, again, what I would say, and we can talk more about this when we get to

[00:16:03] the presidential, but I think that one of the challenges that I had, and I don't like to,

[00:16:09] I'm not, I don't want to, I've both worked on campaigns.

[00:16:12] I don't like to Monday morning quarterback and nitpick too much on stuff.

[00:16:16] Particularly, we got friends on both sides of the aisles and stuff.

[00:16:19] But one of the things that I think is challenging that I saw in the second congressional district

[00:16:22] was one of the advantages, and I mentioned this in some interviews, which is Angie Craig

[00:16:27] had the full support of the Democrats.

[00:16:29] Right.

[00:16:30] She was endorsed by the DFL.

[00:16:31] She was endorsed by, she had the full support in that district.

[00:16:35] You worked that district.

[00:16:36] I've lived in it.

[00:16:37] The district probably better than I do.

[00:16:38] But she had the full institutional support.

[00:16:40] Every layer of support that she could get from national Democrats and local Democrats

[00:16:45] she had.

[00:16:46] Tayrab, unfortunately, was not backed by his local Republicans.

[00:16:49] So the challenge of that presented to him is that he had to spend time in the general

[00:16:53] election messaging and winning over some more of those hardcore Republicans in the district.

[00:16:59] And that hurt him.

[00:17:00] That's why he, it was unfortunate that he had a message on things in the aftermath of Madison

[00:17:05] Square Garden.

[00:17:06] He was out there messaging proactively on why some of the things that Madison Square Garden

[00:17:11] were right, or that there was a, you know, and just talking about that issue and talking

[00:17:16] about the, and things he had to pair it.

[00:17:19] I think he had to do a little bit of cleanup and defend Trump to help win over some of

[00:17:25] those MAGA Republicans in the district that didn't give him the endorsement.

[00:17:28] And that is an example of where I think Tayrab, I think was poorly served by the local Republicans.

[00:17:34] Not by anyone on his campaign, but by the local Republicans in this endorsing convention,

[00:17:39] because that was a benefit that I think Craig had.

[00:17:42] And I think the district is, I think Angie Craig has cemented that district like Jim Ramstad.

[00:17:49] She will have that district for as long as she wants it.

[00:17:52] Right.

[00:17:52] And absent there being something dramatic that happens, she has that district.

[00:17:56] And I think she has a launching pad for statewide appeal.

[00:17:59] Agreed.

[00:18:00] And I think the one thing that we've seen in years past with the Republican against Craig

[00:18:05] is despite this is not uncommon for the Republicans in this race to get grossly outspent, right?

[00:18:13] Craig is a powerhouse in fundraising, having some backing coming from national.

[00:18:17] But in previous cycles, the candidate on the Republican side has had the backing of the local

[00:18:24] parties.

[00:18:24] And so has been able to utilize that infrastructure that exists there because CD2 is just a different

[00:18:31] beast.

[00:18:31] It certainly has.

[00:18:33] Obviously, we know that as we talked about the endorsement battles that's gone on there

[00:18:36] in the past and the subsequent one after he won the primary and failing to endorse.

[00:18:42] But they also do have some workhorses.

[00:18:44] And so it's really unfortunate that they went out and were working and not including Tayrab

[00:18:48] on their door knocking, on their phone effort, on their texting efforts.

[00:18:52] And it really absolutely played a role in this 14-point win.

[00:18:56] Rick Stidger was recommended a goofball gadfly candidate for mayor of Elko Newmarket, was prominently

[00:19:05] featured on local party units' websites this election cycle as a recommended candidate.

[00:19:11] They lost that mayoral race, but Joe Tayrab was not.

[00:19:15] And it's a perfect example for a larger discussion we can have down the road as to why Republicans

[00:19:20] can't have nice things, why Republicans can't have nice things.

[00:19:24] But Becky, I'm going through our predictions here and I had forgotten, but man, we just

[00:19:30] nailed it.

[00:19:30] We were off on, I was obviously on the presidential race.

[00:19:34] I was off.

[00:19:35] But man, look at this other stuff.

[00:19:36] We're pretty good at this.

[00:19:37] I like to think so.

[00:19:39] Tom Hauser, a reporter from Channel 5, tweeted, Minnesota officially no longer has any competitive

[00:19:45] congressional seats and breaks it down.

[00:19:48] We have Finstead winning the first by 16 points.

[00:19:50] Craig up by 14 in the second.

[00:19:53] Morrison is a newly elected congresswoman from CD3, taking over for Dean Phillips.

[00:19:58] She won by 17 points.

[00:19:59] McCollum won by 34.

[00:20:00] Omar won by 49.

[00:20:02] Emmer won by 26.

[00:20:03] Fishback won by 41%, which I love because of Fishback.

[00:20:08] But that seat was relatively recently held by a Democrat.

[00:20:12] And so 41% is just, wow.

[00:20:15] Enstabber won CD8 by 16 points.

[00:20:18] Lowest margin here is Angie Craig with a 14 point lead.

[00:20:22] You know what I think we should do?

[00:20:23] And we didn't plan this.

[00:20:24] Let's give a round of applause to David Fitzsimmons.

[00:20:26] David Fitzsimmons, 41 points.

[00:20:30] That's the first time I've seen the 41 points.

[00:20:32] 41 points.

[00:20:33] And she wasn't endorsed.

[00:20:34] I will go back and I will say consistently again, that the most egregious endorsing problem

[00:20:40] that happened in this state, this election cycle was Congresswoman Michelle Fishback

[00:20:45] not getting endorsed by her Republicans.

[00:20:47] She won with 41% of the vote.

[00:20:50] 41% of the vote.

[00:20:52] Now Becky, I'm not Karl Rove, but I think 41 is a good margin.

[00:20:55] Yeah, pretty good.

[00:20:56] And let's give a shout out to David Fitzsimmons for that.

[00:20:59] Yep.

[00:21:00] One of the best.

[00:21:01] I think that's our first round of applause.

[00:21:02] Yeah, I think so.

[00:21:04] It deserved.

[00:21:05] David was one of my first bosses.

[00:21:06] He has taught me almost everything I know.

[00:21:09] He is brilliant political analyst, a great chief of staff on the Hill, has helped Emmer

[00:21:14] Hagedorn, Fischbach, Finstead.

[00:21:17] He's just absolute rock star.

[00:21:18] So we'll have him out again.

[00:21:20] He doesn't have much experience there.

[00:21:21] Not whatsoever.

[00:21:22] No, this is just great.

[00:21:23] First time I'd seen the 41 and David Fitzsimmons, you are, I'm very happy that the first podcast

[00:21:30] round of applause was for you.

[00:21:31] Perfect.

[00:21:33] Moving on to the U.S.

[00:21:34] Senate, we both predicted that the Republicans would win the U.S.

[00:21:37] Senate.

[00:21:38] They certainly did.

[00:21:39] There's still a couple up in the air there, but 52 to 45 right now.

[00:21:46] Flipped three seats already.

[00:21:48] So we just, you and we both thought it was going to be a GOP majority.

[00:21:52] Did you think it was going to be that much?

[00:21:53] No.

[00:21:54] Okay.

[00:21:54] Because you could have lied and said, yeah, absolutely.

[00:21:57] I didn't say it on air.

[00:22:00] I mean, the map always looked favorable, I think, to Republicans, but it's still a tough

[00:22:04] map.

[00:22:04] And so that is great news.

[00:22:07] We've got some really good senators over there.

[00:22:10] Yeah.

[00:22:11] Did Carrie Lake win?

[00:22:12] She did not win.

[00:22:14] She did not win, but I got a text message from her campaign.

[00:22:17] So you got a message from her campaign?

[00:22:19] Yeah.

[00:22:19] Is it?

[00:22:20] Let me guess.

[00:22:20] Breaking Arizona Senate race is too close to call.

[00:22:23] Push Carrie Lake to victory while there's still time.

[00:22:26] Yes.

[00:22:27] I'm over it.

[00:22:28] I'm over the text messages.

[00:22:30] Okay.

[00:22:30] Can I just talk about that for a quick second?

[00:22:32] I, my mother got my mom an Apple watch and because as we know, I'm a big fan of Apple

[00:22:38] products and Apple watch helped save my life.

[00:22:40] When I signed her up for an Apple watch, the text started just coming through instantaneously.

[00:22:46] And we, we should talk about that.

[00:22:48] I think it's another good episode to talk about because I think CNN did an episode about

[00:22:54] seniors in effect, seniors getting tripped up and just my mom listens to these podcasts.

[00:23:00] Mom, you are considered a senior.

[00:23:01] I got a funny story about that.

[00:23:03] I called my mom on election day and I said, Hey, I said, just an FYI, since you've been

[00:23:07] alive, women have now been able to vote.

[00:23:09] And so you can go vote on election day.

[00:23:11] And she just got so mad at me, but she's just a hoot.

[00:23:13] She voted.

[00:23:14] And it was great to talk to her about the election cycle this year.

[00:23:18] And it's great that she watches this podcast.

[00:23:20] But when I got her the Apple watch, she just got an inundated with texts and I had to help

[00:23:25] work out some of that stuff, but I could see, um, I could see people getting tripped up

[00:23:31] by that and seniors, um, my phone started going off much more of the selection cycle because

[00:23:37] I made a donation and I would show it to my kids.

[00:23:39] They'd be like, that's not really Kamala Harris.

[00:23:41] That's not really Ted Cruz.

[00:23:43] That's not really Jim Jordan is.

[00:23:45] And I'm like, no, it's not.

[00:23:46] But people get that type of stuff.

[00:23:48] And in the text messages are just astounding.

[00:23:50] But Carrie Lake is not going to be a member of the United States Senate.

[00:23:54] Correct.

[00:23:55] When I went to the state party.

[00:23:56] Go ahead.

[00:23:57] I'm sorry.

[00:23:57] I was just going to say, when I worked at the state party, we did have an individual who

[00:24:00] came in with a binder of emails he got from Donald or Donald J. Trump that, that he thought

[00:24:06] were emails from Donald J. Trump.

[00:24:08] So for you, you're absolutely right.

[00:24:10] It is no, it's a tool and a resource, but Carrie Lake will not joined.

[00:24:16] Carrie Lake will not be a member of the most august deliberative body in the world.

[00:24:21] Joining the ranks of United States Senator Dean Barkley.

[00:24:25] She will not be.

[00:24:27] All right.

[00:24:28] I'm a little punchy this morning.

[00:24:30] Oh, I love it.

[00:24:30] I'm having too much fun on today's.

[00:24:32] This is what happens when we get around.

[00:24:33] One of your favorite parts of your conversation, the Senator Amy Kobachar race.

[00:24:38] Yeah.

[00:24:39] Want to give us the breakdown?

[00:24:41] I think your numbers, I think you predicted she would, that Rice White was going to win,

[00:24:44] didn't you?

[00:24:45] Obviously.

[00:24:46] Yes.

[00:24:46] No, she won.

[00:24:47] Here's the thing.

[00:24:48] So earlier this year, and I think it was earlier this year and even part of last year,

[00:24:52] I think it was in December.

[00:24:54] I remember taking some calls from the media because there hadn't been a Republican candidate

[00:24:58] that announced for the United States Senate.

[00:25:00] And I took some calls from the media and I said, Hey, I said running against Amy Klobuchar

[00:25:04] is like, as a, not what I said on the podcast, our live stream, which is Mount Everest, Mount

[00:25:09] Rushmore, which is still big, but it's Mount Everest.

[00:25:12] It's an uphill battle.

[00:25:13] And how big is the hill?

[00:25:15] The size of Mount Everest.

[00:25:16] And so knocking her off was going to be a really tough.

[00:25:19] It's really tough.

[00:25:20] And my compliments to anyone who's climbed either Mount Rushmore or Mount Everest.

[00:25:25] Those are big feats.

[00:25:27] One of the reasons why I thought there was an opportunity for Republicans this year, not

[00:25:32] to knock her off, please.

[00:25:33] That's not what I was saying was because I, if you looked at the years in which Amy Klobuchar

[00:25:37] has run for reelection or election the first year, those have been predominantly very good

[00:25:43] years for Democrats.

[00:25:45] I worked on her.

[00:25:46] I worked on Mark Kennedy's campaign when she ran in 06.

[00:25:49] She beat us like a drum.

[00:25:51] She ran again in 2012, which was a, which was the Obama reelect.

[00:25:59] That was a tough year for Republicans.

[00:26:00] And then she ran for reelection in 18, which was the Trump midterm.

[00:26:07] So she has run in predominant.

[00:26:09] And please tell me if you disagree, Becky, but all of those years, 06, 12 and 18 have predominantly

[00:26:16] been good years for Democrats.

[00:26:18] This was the first year, the first election cycle that Senator Klobuchar was up, that she

[00:26:25] was going to be running into some Republican headwinds.

[00:26:29] That's what it would be.

[00:26:29] We'd be headwinds.

[00:26:30] Yes.

[00:26:31] When it's tailwinds, it's behind this.

[00:26:32] Help you headwinds when it's in your face.

[00:26:34] So she was going to run into some headwinds.

[00:26:36] So the opportunity that existed was for Republicans in this state to nominate someone, to endorse

[00:26:44] and nominate someone who could be a credible messenger and a team player to the Republican

[00:26:50] ticket.

[00:26:50] Perfect example of someone who could have done it was Jason Lewis.

[00:26:54] Now, I don't agree with Jason Lewis's politics.

[00:26:57] He and I have disagreed on politics and policy and on personal issues too.

[00:27:01] But he was someone who ran for the United States Senate.

[00:27:04] He ran against Tina Smith, correct?

[00:27:07] And he was value added to the ticket.

[00:27:09] He was a team player.

[00:27:10] He worked well with others.

[00:27:12] People could get along.

[00:27:13] And that margin was closer.

[00:27:16] So what happened on election day was that Klobuchar, of course, ran into the headwind.

[00:27:23] I'm learning that, getting that right for the first time, the headwind of Republicans.

[00:27:26] And she had a closer margin.

[00:27:28] But she knocked off Royce White convincingly.

[00:27:31] I went back and watched and looked at our friend Brian Strasser's live stream or his Twitter

[00:27:36] thread.

[00:27:37] The race was called at 8.04.

[00:27:39] So I was concerned.

[00:27:40] If you remember from our live stream, you worked on a race that was called at 8.02.

[00:27:44] I worked on a race that was called at 8.01.

[00:27:47] I was jealous of the fact that your race lasted 60 seconds longer than mine.

[00:27:51] But Royce White got, he got 120 seconds longer than you, 20 minutes longer than me.

[00:27:56] It was called at 8.04.

[00:27:59] Yeah.

[00:27:59] I just.

[00:28:00] People did not come.

[00:28:01] The people were not coming.

[00:28:02] Correct.

[00:28:03] However, there have been some wild tweets from Royce White since then.

[00:28:08] Becky, no.

[00:28:09] Say it's not true.

[00:28:10] Not understanding that there are vote fall-offs, that not everybody votes in every race.

[00:28:16] Surprisingly, though, he did get almost 1.3 million votes.

[00:28:20] And that is a little concerning in itself.

[00:28:23] Klobuchar did win by 16 points.

[00:28:25] It is her smallest margin.

[00:28:26] But she did outperform Kamala Harris.

[00:28:29] And in something we'll just mention and then talk more about at a later date, in the two days

[00:28:34] since the election or three days since the election, Royce White has already announced

[00:28:38] that he is likely going to run for Senate against Tina Smith in 2026 or run for governor.

[00:28:45] Why not?

[00:28:46] So many more conversations to be had about the joy that is Royce White.

[00:28:51] So we'll come back to that.

[00:28:52] But Senator Klobuchar did win.

[00:28:53] We both predicted it.

[00:28:55] And Republicans have that majority in the Senate.

[00:28:59] So it is, Congress is going to be, wow, D.C. trifecta.

[00:29:06] Wowza.

[00:29:07] Yeah.

[00:29:08] Opposite trifecta here.

[00:29:09] And I'm going to go through this.

[00:29:10] I'm going through our predictions.

[00:29:11] You and I did really well.

[00:29:13] I'm going to keep saying that.

[00:29:14] We did really well.

[00:29:17] If only you could do this well on your fantasy or on your football stuff, we'd be even better.

[00:29:23] But we did really well.

[00:29:24] And what I think that shows, I'm going to keep going back to this point.

[00:29:27] This type of analysis, again, this type of analysis comes from informed discussions.

[00:29:35] To me, this shows and verifies that you and I have spent two years understanding what's going on.

[00:29:42] It doesn't mean that we didn't pick sides and want things to be different.

[00:29:44] But in terms of looking at the electorate and looking what was going to happen, you and I have a really good idea of what's going on.

[00:29:52] Yes.

[00:29:53] And have learned a lot.

[00:29:54] So I think this is some good educated guesses here.

[00:29:57] Sure.

[00:29:58] I have to give it to you, though, here.

[00:30:00] So we're going to move on to presidential.

[00:30:02] Lots and lots to talk about.

[00:30:04] Starting with our predictions, you thought Harris was going to win overall.

[00:30:07] I thought Trump was going to win overall.

[00:30:09] But when we talked about Minnesota results, I thought it was going to be Harris by about seven.

[00:30:14] You thought by about five or six.

[00:30:17] And man, she was just shy of five points here in the state.

[00:30:21] Or just a little over, just about four.

[00:30:25] Why did you think Trump was going to win?

[00:30:28] I just really, it's hard to go back three days ago now knowing what I know.

[00:30:34] But I just continued to feel that I didn't feel like the, I felt like people were upset.

[00:30:43] And I didn't feel like much to the chagrin of one of our dedicated listeners and frequent Twitter followers, Kilo Watt.

[00:30:52] He poked me quite a bit when I would say it.

[00:30:55] But the economy was always something to me that really, I felt like Trump continued to hit on and Democrats continued to miss on.

[00:31:03] And I think this is something we had a conversation with Preya where she really said, laid into, and we'll get a little bit more into the messaging here in a bit.

[00:31:10] But she really said, just telling people that the streets are safer and the economy is better when they're not feeling it doesn't, isn't a recipe for winning message.

[00:31:22] And I felt like that there was some sort of miss.

[00:31:25] I felt like people still just were not truly resonating with Harris.

[00:31:29] And coulda, woulda, shoulda, but 107 days just as a really short time to introduce your candidates, to get your message out there.

[00:31:36] And so I just thought that as much as I felt like Harris was surging in those last few days, I just didn't feel like it was going to be enough to bring us over the finish line.

[00:31:45] I think I had also mentioned how I had spent the weekend prior to the election in Wisconsin and just driving through Wisconsin and what I was seeing and feeling and seeing on my social media feeds from folks on both sides of the aisle.

[00:31:58] But it is, I felt as, I just felt it.

[00:32:02] I just felt a little bit of Trump support.

[00:32:04] I did not expect the results to be necessarily what they were.

[00:32:08] I thought some of the swing states were going to go to Harris, but we'll break that down a little bit more here shortly.

[00:32:15] But you had it closer here for Harris in Minnesota and pretty spot on to what it ended up being.

[00:32:21] Yes, but aside from being the co-host of this podcast and I helped produce, I also am a passionate listener of this podcast.

[00:32:30] I went back and listened to a few of our episodes over the last couple of days as I was resting.

[00:32:35] Your analysis and Preya's analysis, I'm glad that you brought her up.

[00:32:39] Your guys' analysis as to where this race was going was spot on.

[00:32:43] You two consistently went back and talked about jobs, the economy, and how people were feeling and what was going on.

[00:32:50] And you kept going back to that.

[00:32:52] And if you, it was, you were spot on.

[00:32:56] You were spot on in terms of where you guys thought that this race was.

[00:33:01] And Preya was a guest, but you were consistently, when we talked about the race, you were right there.

[00:33:07] And your analysis was spot on.

[00:33:08] And so your analysis and the consistency of it and what you kept focusing on is exactly why I didn't get high on my own supply.

[00:33:20] That's why I was, and I was grounded in a sense of understanding that this is a flip of a coin.

[00:33:24] This could go either way.

[00:33:26] And if we go back to our conversation with Mark Drake about the sugar high in the right track, wrong track, that episode really helped frame my thinking.

[00:33:35] And then listening to you in particular, really do a reality check.

[00:33:39] Every podcast episode with you was a reality check on where this race was and what was going on.

[00:33:45] And that's why on election day, I could do a four-hour podcast live stream and not grab a noose and hang myself in my office.

[00:33:53] Because I was well aware of this was a volatile electorate and where it could go.

[00:34:00] And the bottom line is, is this race in many ways wasn't close in a number of ways.

[00:34:08] And there's, I think it's going to be a group.

[00:34:09] I'm really excited about our future episodes.

[00:34:12] We could break down the polling.

[00:34:14] We could break down so many things as to where folks got it wrong.

[00:34:16] But one place that we, that one part of this episode that we didn't, that this episode didn't get wrong was your analysis.

[00:34:25] Your analysis was spot on.

[00:34:27] And it's going to, and I'm going to encourage our listeners to go back and listen to some of our previous, our previously released episodes.

[00:34:35] Because what you were, what you were calling out turned out to be how this election was decided.

[00:34:42] And my compliments to you for just continually bringing it back.

[00:34:46] You cut through the noise.

[00:34:48] You truly did.

[00:34:49] And, and you really cut through the noise and didn't allow it to get distracted.

[00:34:53] There was a number of episodes, Becky, where, when we was like, but this, let's not forget this, all this other kind of, all this other, we can talk about Madison Square Garden and all this other stuff.

[00:35:04] But here's where things are at.

[00:35:06] There was always the yes, but type stuff from you.

[00:35:09] And that but stuff was the important stuff.

[00:35:12] And that's how people voted on election day.

[00:35:14] And so my compliments to you for really focusing in on what this election, what mattered to people this election.

[00:35:23] And I'm really proud of your analysis.

[00:35:26] Your analysis was spot on.

[00:35:28] I appreciate that.

[00:35:29] I think I saw a tweet that said, reminder that social media and cable TV aren't the real world.

[00:35:34] And I think that was something because, again, of the shortened time here, it was tough to not want to buy into the Harris stuff, right?

[00:35:41] Because I think that we looked at it.

[00:35:43] And first it started with Biden getting out and the excitement of Harris getting in.

[00:35:47] Then it was the excitement of Tim Walz.

[00:35:49] Then it was the excitement of the DNC.

[00:35:50] Then it was the excitement of Taylor Swift.

[00:35:53] Then it was the debate.

[00:35:55] And it was just time after time, either of a success and surge and excitement around the Harris campaign or eating cats and dogs and Madison Square Garden.

[00:36:05] And these what we can point to as downfalls from the Trump campaign.

[00:36:10] And so I think it's when you look at it at that kind of high level, it is hard to not be like, she's got this in the back.

[00:36:17] I mean, there's just all of this excitement and energy and successes and movement forward.

[00:36:24] And I think that's what I want to break down a little bit more because I think in general, and we'll chat through this, despite what we'll look at as some of the missteps,

[00:36:33] I think the campaign that they ran was a decent campaign, right?

[00:36:38] I think we watched them catch their footing and get some good interviews going and have the rallies and the different events that they were held and the excitement.

[00:36:47] They were able to maintain this momentum that maybe is to the detriment because it was a false.

[00:36:54] And we'll get into that because I think that there are some points that of some autopsies and postmortems that I've read of some things to point to that I think,

[00:37:03] are things that we have had a conversation about just about every single one of them as well.

[00:37:07] But I'm very curious of your take and you've, I've watched you on social media over the last 48, 72 hours as well.

[00:37:13] And some of the clips you've posted and articles you've posted, I think aligns with some of the things that I'm feeling and seeing from this.

[00:37:23] But first I want to hit on just some of the facts, some of the numbers here.

[00:37:26] First of all, I think one of the surprises we chatted prior to the election about the Iowa poll that had Harris up by three.

[00:37:34] We talked with John Rulil on election night about how even if it is wrong, those kind of polls are still important to share.

[00:37:41] And we can go back and we'll probably see more about the methodology.

[00:37:45] But Trump came out by 13 in Iowa, which is a pretty big surge.

[00:37:50] And then I want to hit popular vote real quick.

[00:37:52] Trump won the popular vote.

[00:37:54] And I it's not something I wish we would have done a prediction there.

[00:37:58] I despite thinking Trump was going to win, I would not have guessed he would win the popular vote.

[00:38:04] Would you have?

[00:38:05] No, but I'm curious why you Becky, I'm going to just say this again and I'll just go off and just ran again.

[00:38:14] There are so many, there are so many podcasts out there that were either all Trump or all Harris.

[00:38:24] And on election night, there were people tears of joy or tears of sadness.

[00:38:31] And then there's us in this spot.

[00:38:34] And so my I guess I would ask to you, you got this stuff right.

[00:38:38] And so my question is, why did you not think Trump would win the popular vote?

[00:38:42] Because your barometer, your gauge, I think on this on the presidential race was pitch perfect.

[00:38:50] I look at this completely outside the realm of the electoral college.

[00:38:54] I think that Trump obviously won all of the swing states and that's where he found his successes.

[00:38:59] But again, I go back to the op-ed piece of Joel Walsh wrote and talking about the problems within the Democratic Party and how they've become the party of kind of the educated elite.

[00:39:10] And this is where I think with that comes California and New York and Washington and Oregon and some of these bigger population centers that were going to in droves vote for Harris over Trump.

[00:39:23] And I think that's where I just assumed that despite potentially winning the electoral college, I just the popular vote never crossed my mind.

[00:39:35] And this is where I think, again, some of the surprising.

[00:39:39] First of all, it should be we should mention it's only the second time since 1988 that a presidential candidate has gotten an outright majority.

[00:39:46] President Trump got 50.73 percent of the vote of the popular vote.

[00:39:50] But I was looking at Sam Brody was a former MinnPost reporter.

[00:39:55] He's now with a different state and I don't remember which state at the moment, but he had tweeted about some of the Harris backsliding from Biden's numbers, including.

[00:40:03] And this is where I think there was a little bit of that erosion in some of the solidly blue states.

[00:40:08] Nate Silver had a really great piece talking about the different boroughs in New York and the margins that that Harris lost from Biden's campaign.

[00:40:17] So New Jersey, she underperformed Biden by almost 11 points in Illinois by nine points in New York by 12 points and in Maryland by nine points.

[00:40:26] Those are places where this popular vote really ticks away because those are your bread and butter.

[00:40:34] To not to only win Illinois by 8.5 percent versus Biden 17 percent and only win New York by 11.5 versus 23.

[00:40:45] Those are when you start to see those slip away.

[00:40:49] And this is probably why we saw her not come out on stage on election night.

[00:40:53] And again, when we talked about what you're doing in war rooms and where you're looking, they had to have seen that pretty early, despite what the swing states were doing.

[00:41:01] When you see this erosion and some of those must win, must kill it, must crush it and dominate, a little surprising.

[00:41:10] And I think this goes to, again, the conversation that we need to talk about.

[00:41:14] And I think Joe Walsh was spot on, right, about the kind of come to Jesus moment that the Democratic Party needs to have.

[00:41:21] And this is something that I think folks were surprised.

[00:41:24] It's only a little surprising to me because I don't think it's a new phenomenon, is that I think the Democrats, since 2016, when Trump won for the first time,

[00:41:35] Democrats have been taking a little advantage of some of their key demographics, some of their key supporters.

[00:41:41] I think that we saw this, it's a lot of the non-college educated, blue-collar workers were seeing it a lot with the minorities.

[00:41:49] And I think that's where this race really came down to some of this.

[00:41:55] Biden won Latinos by 32 percentage points in 2020, and Harris won them by just eight.

[00:42:02] It's astounding.

[00:42:03] Astounding.

[00:42:04] Astounding.

[00:42:04] And then one that really shocked me was Biden won 18 to 29-year-old voters by 24, and that lead was almost cut in half by Harris.

[00:42:12] She won by just 13.

[00:42:13] Those are key demographics that Democrats have had in their back pocket and had on their side,

[00:42:21] and I think just always assumed they would be there, but they weren't talking to them.

[00:42:27] And I think they neglected and just assumed they'd be with him and be against Trump for being a, quote, racist, homophobic individual who's going to deport all of the minorities and do all of these restrictive votes,

[00:42:41] which may or may not be true.

[00:42:43] Let that time will tell.

[00:42:44] But I think with that, I think these, again, I think the general principle, and I think we ended our live stream with talking about this,

[00:42:51] of what was happening, is people are pissed, and I think results really show that they're really upset with how the last four years went,

[00:42:58] and this is them showing that.

[00:43:01] I am, what I'm so surprised by, and the first question I want to ask, I want to ask your permission for something.

[00:43:06] I would like to publish your script from this notes because I think your analysis is the best I've read.

[00:43:13] And so with your permission, I'd like to share it on social media.

[00:43:16] But one thing that surprises me in all this is because if you go back to our conversations with John Rouleau and with Senator Benson,

[00:43:26] with Ryan Wilson, go back particularly to our conversation with Mark Drake when he said that there was a little bit of a sugar high.

[00:43:33] I remembered that, and I was always aware of that kind of sugar high that was going on.

[00:43:37] And I think you laid out very clearly a series of events that people got wrapped up in.

[00:43:46] I don't think we didn't get wrapped up in as much, but just because I think both of us came into Election Day from different perspectives saying it was going to be close.

[00:43:55] And if you look at our analysis, if either of us were caught up in that sugar high, I think we would have said,

[00:44:01] no, the House, they're going to control the Senate.

[00:44:04] It's going to be a trifecta the other way.

[00:44:06] And neither of us predicted that.

[00:44:07] But what I think is so interesting in all of your analysis and all those numbers is why wasn't this reflected?

[00:44:14] Where was the polling that showed this?

[00:44:17] And I think you can look back at some of the polling and say that they clearly show that Trump was winning in some of these swing states.

[00:44:25] What I think is interesting is looking at the analysis, he ran the table on all those swing states.

[00:44:32] And when you throw in the Iowa poll, there was, I think.

[00:44:38] I was puzzled by the Iowa poll and I'm still puzzled by it.

[00:44:41] I'm still puzzled as to how it would happen.

[00:44:44] But ultimately, this, I don't, I'm not aware while polling did show that you could go back and look and say, yes, polling showed that these races were close.

[00:44:56] There was no way in which, and I'm aware of, and please correct me if I'm wrong, any polling that showed this level of intensity that was going to happen out there.

[00:45:06] I don't think any Trump supporter, even the most MAGA pollster or the most MAGA supporter planted a flag and said, this is what I think is going to happen.

[00:45:18] This was an astounding victory.

[00:45:20] And as you are, as you pointed out from your data, the, since 19, what'd you say, 1988?

[00:45:26] And so this is a mandate.

[00:45:29] Make no mistake about it.

[00:45:30] This is a mandate for Republicans in the Senate, Republicans in the House.

[00:45:35] And this is a mandate for President Trump.

[00:45:38] And so I'm just surprised that I'm always a fan of the autop, not as much as you are in the creepy way, but in the autopsy in the postmortem.

[00:45:47] And I'd like to figure out and make sure we can break down some conversations as to where folks got this wrong.

[00:45:54] Like, why wasn't this seen?

[00:45:55] Because ultimately, Becky, I'll go back to this and say, there's podcasts right now that people are crying for tears of joy and tears of sadness.

[00:46:04] And here you and I are right in the middle.

[00:46:06] And I think I'd like to learn why more people didn't approach it from our perspective, because I think you nailed it.

[00:46:13] And my take is, and again, it's a kind of a surprise to me that it's, that it is a surprise, is that I genuinely think people are just still a little embarrassed to say they're supporting President Donald Trump.

[00:46:28] Right?

[00:46:29] When we look, because I don't think the issues are wrong.

[00:46:32] I do think that the top issues still remain immigration and democracy and abortion and economy.

[00:46:38] I do think that those maintain.

[00:46:40] I just think that at the end of the day, folks are not feeling it.

[00:46:45] And this is where, before I get into some of the issues, I want to read this.

[00:46:49] Bernie Sanders put out a statement in a tweet after the election, and he said,

[00:46:53] It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party, which has abandoned working class people, would find that the working class has abandoned them.

[00:47:00] While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change.

[00:47:06] And they're right.

[00:47:06] And you will not hear me say it very often.

[00:47:09] Oh, boy.

[00:47:10] But bravo, Bernie Sanders.

[00:47:12] Because this is, it just really.

[00:47:14] The Becky Scherr Apple file just got a little thicker.

[00:47:18] I just really think that this is true.

[00:47:20] I think that they, it goes back, I think they took it for granted.

[00:47:23] I think the American people are angry.

[00:47:26] And again, there was another tweet that said,

[00:47:29] Nothing here looks like a story of various campaign decisions or a VP choice or a big set piece of speeches.

[00:47:35] It's an electorate mad at the incumbent White House's record and expressing it pretty uniformly everywhere, blue and red states alike.

[00:47:44] I do want to get into some of these issues.

[00:47:47] So, starting with the economy, because that was one I was obviously very passionate about.

[00:47:51] And I think, again, our friend, who I am always happy to take constructive criticism.

[00:47:56] And it's obviously a differing of opinion.

[00:47:58] There was Mr. Kilowatt on Twitter said that,

[00:48:01] I was more concerned about the price of eggs than an authoritarian dictator, I believe, as the tweet alluded to.

[00:48:09] And not that I can say is fully true, but I think what we saw from this is,

[00:48:15] Sure, the inflation is down.

[00:48:17] Interest rates are better.

[00:48:18] Things are getting on the right track.

[00:48:21] But in exit polls on election night, 67% of voters rated the economy as not so good or poor, per the Washington polls.

[00:48:30] That's wild numbers.

[00:48:32] Two-thirds of voters said not so good or poor.

[00:48:36] So, we are not feeling that.

[00:48:38] And there was another tweet from Representative Richie Torres from New York.

[00:48:44] He said,

[00:48:45] The signs of decisive defeat were staring us in the face all along.

[00:48:48] We are simply in denial about them or willfully blind to them, substituting magical thinking for actual analysis.

[00:48:53] In recent history, there's no precedent for an incumbent party winning a presidential election when the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the right track or headed in the right direction is in the 20s.

[00:49:05] The structural challenge was simply insurmountable.

[00:49:09] And this, again, goes back to our conversation with Mark Drake.

[00:49:12] It just, historical data when it comes to the economy and what American voters are feeling in their pocketbooks is just really black and white.

[00:49:22] Despite everything else that is besides wars that are going on, besides reproductive rights being in, hanging in the balance, economical issues are always something.

[00:49:33] We literally, I talk about it with my husband all the time.

[00:49:36] We have two good-paying jobs and a child in daycare.

[00:49:39] And it's tough sometimes of what you're looking at when you look at gas prices and mortgage prices and daycare costs and grocery costs and trying to get our kid in music class or go on trips and go to Wisconsin Bells and all of that.

[00:49:53] And again, we live in a very nice place of privilege with having two great incomes.

[00:50:00] Families that are making $50,000 or $60,000 a year for an income, which is nothing to scoff at, are really struggling.

[00:50:08] And so this is something that, it is something that it's, I will say, it's again, being a place of privilege, I think, is when you can look at things at times.

[00:50:19] And I don't want this to come off wrong because I, again, am pro-choice and the abortion issue is something that I really struggled with in this race.

[00:50:28] But when you're struggling every single day to figure out if you're paying bills or getting groceries or what you can do for your children and your families, sometimes you don't have the luxury to worry about some of the cultural issues that we are facing.

[00:50:41] And I think this is just really what it comes down to is families are mad, families are struggling, families don't feel better off than they were four, five, 10 years ago.

[00:50:50] And that's really what it comes down to.

[00:50:52] I think you are absolutely spot on.

[00:50:55] And I think you were right all along.

[00:50:58] I think that if you go back and look at our scripts, you go back and look at what we did on this podcast, you were ahead of the curve in terms of not letting the conversation get steered off into distractions and other types of issues.

[00:51:11] The bottom line is that episode that we had, the episode that we had with with Mark and John talking about right track, wrong track.

[00:51:19] I listened to that.

[00:51:21] My answer on my answer to my kids and to anyone, I always said, I think this race is a flip of a coin.

[00:51:28] I wouldn't be surprised if Harris won.

[00:51:29] I wouldn't be surprised if Trump run.

[00:51:31] But the right track, wrong track shows that this race shouldn't be close.

[00:51:35] It's what I always consistently said.

[00:51:37] I also said that, I also used a little bit of the Nikki Haley thing and said the first candidate that flips the nominee is going to put themselves in a better position.

[00:51:47] I stand by that my thought was there.

[00:51:50] But the bottom line is the economy, the right track, wrong track was consistently the issue.

[00:51:56] And it's why I think it's important that we look back at this and say, I think just on this podcast, I think it's important that neither of us get high on our own supply.

[00:52:07] And then we were able to come in.

[00:52:09] And then we did, I think, if you look at what we predicted was going to happen, we obviously, there was nothing in our analysis that showed that this was going to be a blowout for Republicans.

[00:52:19] And no one had that.

[00:52:20] But the reason why we're able to logically go through this today is because you in particular, and I would say a little bit less on mine, we're seeing some of these things.

[00:52:30] And we knew, and this is where this race ended up.

[00:52:33] People voted.

[00:52:34] People voted based on their pocketbook.

[00:52:37] And right track, wrong track is this race shouldn't have been close.

[00:52:41] And I think that's why, again, the analysis that you've done here, but the preceding episodes was just pitch perfect.

[00:52:49] Thank you.

[00:52:50] And I don't want to continue to just read other people's analysis, but I am going to share on Twitter after this an autopsy article by S.C. Kupp, who is a reporter, author that I like.

[00:53:05] She was formerly a big Republican analyst, a big supporter of McCain and Romney, has since no longer supportive of Trump or the Republican Party largely.

[00:53:15] And she spent this cycle really in and watching what was going on in those swing states.

[00:53:20] And this is something that she continues to hit on, the struggles of families worrying about how to pay their bills, feed their kids, put gas in their cars, and that they felt unsafe in their cities and towns.

[00:53:32] And then she went into talking about that these were not the same people that were going to Trump rallies or being a part out there in the mega universe.

[00:53:40] But Trump was acknowledging them, where she feels, and I agree, that the Democrat Party was not.

[00:53:47] And so it's some of the reason why ignoring those voters was the downfall of this campaign and the Democrats largely because they wanted everybody to be the Kill Tony and the QAnon and the Proud Boys.

[00:54:00] When that's not who the Trump, it's always easy to do a mass generalization, but there is this large sect of these Trump supporters or even just Republican Trump voters who fall into this avenue.

[00:54:14] And so I'll tweet that.

[00:54:15] It's a great read.

[00:54:16] It's pretty short, but I think goes into this a little bit more about that downfall when it comes to the economy.

[00:54:23] I want to, great, and thanks for doing that.

[00:54:25] I want to ask you just a couple of things before we go here.

[00:54:28] There's been some people who have gone out and are shaming voters.

[00:54:31] What's your approach to that?

[00:54:33] There's Dom.

[00:54:34] I think those are people that really are not willing to take any sort of introspective look at what they are doing wrong.

[00:54:42] I think it is easy to do.

[00:54:45] And I think, again, when you look at a mass generalization of supporters or voters who voted Donald Trump or even you could even lump in right in voters like me, anybody who did not vote for Kamala Harris to some people are just dead to them.

[00:55:02] That you too are a homophobic, racist individual.

[00:55:07] You too are somebody who want to go back to the handmaid's tale and cease to have reproductive rights for all women.

[00:55:14] And that's just truly not the case.

[00:55:16] And I think it's really unfortunate.

[00:55:18] And I hope those folks get to look at some of these things.

[00:55:21] You tweeted a great video that I'll also reshare of a conversation with a woman on CNN talking about how important it is for Democrats to really figure out what the issue is here.

[00:55:32] Or this is just going to continue.

[00:55:34] Just like Republicans have so many issues on the right under Trump and the mega world.

[00:55:39] Something needs to happen or this will continue to happen if Democrats do not figure out how to talk to everyday voters in middle America and not just the coastal elites.

[00:55:49] It's just, I think, simply put.

[00:55:52] One other point I want to say is you made a statement that you thought Harris ran a good campaign, but the campaign came up short.

[00:56:00] Could you expand on that a bit as to how you can, because what, give your take, because you have so much campaign experience.

[00:56:08] The campaign was ultimately not successful.

[00:56:10] So give some context as to why you're willing to say that.

[00:56:13] I think that there were some downfalls.

[00:56:16] Like I've obviously articulated this messaging thing that was Democrats as a whole, not just Kamala Harris.

[00:56:23] I also think one of the big things is her failure to differentiate herself from President Biden and trying to be a little too nice when it comes to that.

[00:56:31] And we can chat a little bit more about that.

[00:56:33] But the infrastructure of the campaign had some of the best political minds and operatives.

[00:56:38] It had the money.

[00:56:39] It had all the makings to be a successful campaign.

[00:56:44] They had great stops, great events, great surrogates.

[00:56:47] They had great media hits.

[00:56:49] She started, I thought, despite my criticism on the front end of taking so long to do interviews, she started putting herself out there.

[00:56:56] It wasn't easy, her Anderson Cooper Town Hall, these events that she was putting herself into.

[00:57:02] But the campaign itself, aside from the messaging and some of the downfalls of the candidate herself, I think the campaign itself looked like it had the makings and the infrastructure to do everything right.

[00:57:14] I think it was really the messaging is where the failure was.

[00:57:18] I would agree.

[00:57:19] I wanted to say a few things in closing.

[00:57:21] I had a number of, not a number, but a couple people we can talk, I'll disclose off air, who called me after the election, who called me a day or so ago and were lampooning me and being quite critical because democracy was on the ballot.

[00:57:34] And how did we're never going to have elections before and doing things.

[00:57:37] I want to point something out to our listeners and expand on my position.

[00:57:41] First of all, Becky, I want to say how much I've appreciated you being respectful of the position that I took and coming on this podcast and allowing me to have that position and provide a space where even though I picked the side of the team, we offered analysis.

[00:58:01] And I would say, again, I think our analysis on this election hands down the best in the state in terms of any podcast and one of the best nationally.

[00:58:08] And you helped lead that discussion.

[00:58:10] And I'm so appreciative of that.

[00:58:11] But one of the things I want to point out to you that was one of my concerns was about democracy.

[00:58:16] And one of the things that I think was so important that the vice president did, and we can talk about this more, is that she came out and acknowledged that she lost the election.

[00:58:25] And I believe that is the best gift that shows the character of her.

[00:58:31] She was the character of who she is and how much she's committed to wanting this country to succeed.

[00:58:36] People need to understand.

[00:58:37] And I said that to people.

[00:58:39] I said, democracy was on the ballot because if Donald Trump had lost, I believe we would have had another four years of him not accepting the results of the election.

[00:58:49] This country would have been driven apart by election denialism and other concerns.

[00:58:54] And if you notice something, when he lost, when he won the election, all those concerns about the election process went away.

[00:59:01] I stand by my position that election denialism, the inability for people to accept election results is an absolute threat to democracy.

[00:59:10] And the fact that the vice president went out there and said that she accepted the results and it was time for this country to come together shows to prove to me once again, that democracy was on the ballot.

[00:59:21] And I'm so proud of the fact that she gave that message.

[00:59:25] I'm so proud to have been a Republican for Harris, particularly in this state.

[00:59:29] One thing I will also say from the election results, it shows pretty clearly that MAGA Republicanism in this state is not a path to success.

[00:59:37] There were successes all across this country.

[00:59:40] And the reality is that since Donald Trump has become the front, the face of the Republican Party, Republicans have not succeeded as they should.

[00:59:49] There are candidate, the Republican endorsed candidate for the United States Senate laws.

[00:59:54] There's no longer targeted congressional districts.

[00:59:57] The ability, I think, for Republicans to win statewide is becoming more and more of a challenge.

[01:00:03] Because if you look at the districts that the Republicans have dominance in versus where the Democrats do, population is in the Twin Cities.

[01:00:11] And to win statewide, you got to be able to win in some of these suburban places.

[01:00:15] You got to win in some of these districts.

[01:00:16] And so I think that there's a shot for Republicanism in this state, but not MAGA Republicanism.

[01:00:22] And I think I will say over the course of the conversations I had over this election, there are so many Republicans in this state who I think want to be a part of a broad coalition that can win, but still don't identify with Donald Trump.

[01:00:36] And my concern is after the election that Republicans in this state are going to think that Donald Trump is the path to success.

[01:00:45] Here's the truth of it.

[01:00:47] Republican, there is going to be a midterm in two years.

[01:00:49] And one of the concerning scenarios that Republicans laid out was, is that Donald Trump wins the state, Harris wins Minnesota, Republicans make some small gains in the legislature, and they'll get wiped out in the midterms.

[01:01:04] And to leave this election cycle with Royce White going out there and saying that he's going to run for the United States Senator, possibly governor, the Republican Party in this state and those who still want to espouse the values of MAGA Republicanism need to reconcile where they live with the election results.

[01:01:23] And it's going to be a tough road for MAGA Republicans in this state.

[01:01:28] Absolutely agree.

[01:01:29] And we have the next four years to discuss it, should we be so lucky.

[01:01:33] I think that one thing that we have made clear over the last two years is that while we do not support Donald Trump, we talked about on election night that we do not wish ill on him and the success of this country and want to be cautiously optimistic that we will get things turned around and we will get their country on the right path.

[01:01:55] And we will not.

[01:02:26] But I do, despite not having voted for him, and obviously you did not vote for him either, want to say that we support this country and the office of the presidency and hopeful that the path forward can be bright and prosperous for us all.

[01:02:42] And we'll see.

[01:02:44] Yes.

[01:02:45] And just to put a final point, you and I think are both in agreement, even though we align sometimes different politically, is that we want our president, we want our president to succeed.

[01:02:54] We want our elected leaders to succeed.

[01:02:56] And so I'm in the same place I was after the 2000, after the 92 election, the 96, the 2000, the 2004, 2008, 2012, 16, 20 and 24.

[01:03:07] I want the president of the United States to succeed.

[01:03:11] I'm going to have some disagreement on policy and approach.

[01:03:14] There's a place for that.

[01:03:16] When our president succeeds, our country succeeds.

[01:03:19] And that's what we all should want.

[01:03:20] And I'm so glad we're bound by that.

[01:03:22] I absolutely agree.

[01:03:26] We want to thank you for listening to The Breakdown with Broadcore and Becky.

[01:03:29] Before we go, show some love for your favorite podcast by leaving us a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or on the platform where you listen.

[01:03:37] You can leave a review or give us a shout out on our website or across all social media platforms at at BDBreakPod.

[01:03:45] The Breakdown with Broadcore and Becky will return next week.

[01:03:48] Thank you again for listening.