A break down about Biden bowing out of the presidential race

[00:00:00] Welcome to The Break Down with Brodkorb and Becky, a weekly podcast that breaks down politics, policy and current affairs. I'm Becky Scherr. And I'm Michael Brodkorb. We are excited to be here this week after some breaking news over the weekend that President

[00:00:24] Joe Biden is bowing out of the race for president. We are joined today by two of our favorite panelists. Coming in hot with the most breakdown appearances, let's welcome John Rulow. John is the executive director of Minnesota Jobs Coalition, has long been active in Republican politics and campaigning.

[00:00:40] And back for his second visit to the show, we have Mark Drake. Mark worked for Senator Coleman and Governor Palenti and has held senior communications and research positions in support of presidential statewide and local political candidates.

[00:00:52] Mark and John both were on just a few weeks ago as we analyzed the follow following the first presidential debate. Today we are going to break down Biden's announcement to drop out and the initial reactions to hearing the news.

[00:01:03] We will then discuss what is next when it comes to the DNC convention and subsequent nomination of Kamala Harris and the battle surrounding the Biden campaign millions. We will break down what this means to the state of the race between Trump and Kamala

[00:01:16] Harris and we will get into Harris's VP choice and the local angle. Thanks for joining us and enjoy the show. So over the weekend, Michael and I were texting how much more can Biden endure slash if he hasn't caved yet, what will actually break the dam?

[00:01:34] It's officially happened. Please out, want to get initial reactions and from each of you and did you actually think it was going to happen? Mark, I'll start with you. Did you think that Biden was going to get out and what did you think when we heard

[00:01:45] the news on Sunday? I vacillated on it toward the end. I thought maybe he'd get out, maybe he'd stay in his staffers, his campaign team. They had been on the Sunday shows that morning reiterating that he's staying in.

[00:02:01] So I didn't know quite what to think and when it came the announcement, I had to read it a couple of times to make sure it wasn't some disinformation or some deep fake but it was real. I think he did the only thing that made sense.

[00:02:15] I think he was doomed that he stayed at the top of the ticket. From his perspective, his family's perspective, his team's perspective, I think he did what the only thing he could do. John, what's your thought?

[00:02:27] I think we were all on this podcast a couple of weeks ago and said that we didn't think that he was going anywhere, that he would dig in. I think it really just shows how untenable the situation had gotten for the Democrats.

[00:02:42] I was speaking with a couple of people and there seems to be the sense that if he isn't up, that he removed himself from the race because of the medical reasons because of his age.

[00:02:54] I think what it comes down to is that he removed himself from this race because he couldn't win. I think remains to be seen whether he could have made it through this campaign with his

[00:03:04] age but what became very clear is that he was not going to win, he was not going to be successful and just as you stare that down, I was talking to some Democratic friends

[00:03:16] of mine and the feeling of relief that they had when he made the decision to get out of this race. Just thinking about how terrible of a question that must have been where they look at Kamala

[00:03:28] Harris and think, oh God what a relief we get to have Kamala Harris at the top of our ticket and somehow feel better about where things are going. It had gotten really bad for them over the last couple of weeks and I think surprising

[00:03:42] and then probably was the best decision that he could have made for the Democrats political future. Michael I think you and I messaged and it was always almost every day the last week it was, it's happening today. It's not. It's happening today. It's not.

[00:03:58] So what was your, when it came to it, did you have any shock or you thought you were on the, it's happening today? I was surprised. I mean we had a podcast a few weeks ago and I was in a good group.

[00:04:09] I was with three people that were smarter than me and we all agreed that it was going to be tough for him to do it but then I was part of, you know, been talking

[00:04:17] with some of you texting off air and it became clear that I think his position became much more tenable and the, some of the efforts that were done, Nick Shorpa's base, continued to network.

[00:04:28] There was a slow drip over the last few days where it started to get more. I think that the kids COVID diagnosis was I think an issue but I was surprised when it happened even though I expected it.

[00:04:42] We were getting closer and as Mark said, I think I was going back and forth as to whether it would happen. I was just, you know, surprised when it actually happened because it's so historic. We're in such uncharted territory.

[00:04:54] Surprising and be interesting to be a part of the discussion today but at the end there I was surprised. It makes sense now. I mean I look back at our discussion. I think we had a very informed discussion but I think what we couldn't predict

[00:05:07] is what was going to happen in the following days and weeks and the situation never got better for him. And so ultimately I think it was the right decision to make as John described because he can't win.

[00:05:18] I think it was the right decision for the Democrats to make. I think the same kind of institutional questions I had still exist. We'll see how this discussion goes but I'm surprised and that's where we're at Becky, your take. Yeah, I really got to the point.

[00:05:32] We've been almost what? Two weeks since the debate happened, two weeks of pressure, wild top Democratic leaders coming out and opposing him, his continued candidacy. It just seemed to me that if none of that broke that dam I wasn't sure that dam was going to break.

[00:05:50] I thought they seemed so steadfast and so cohesive and the strong letters and messaging coming out of the camp, the family and like I really had gotten convinced that it just wasn't going to happen and he was going to force move forward.

[00:06:03] So was definitely shocked but I think then we also want to, I'm interested in the takes on the actual announcement. We got a letter without the official seal which I guess I don't know if they

[00:06:14] can technically do that because it is a campaign, not an official thing but Mark you mentioned trying to figure out if this was real or not. It was just a letter. We got no video, no prime time sit down interview breaking the news.

[00:06:26] White House staff found out on social media as well which I understand leaks happen. That's probably how it has to go but John you've worked on a lot of campaigns probably done some breaking news of sorts.

[00:06:38] Was it surprising to you that we didn't get a some sort of Biden to camera whether through a recorded scripted video or a friendly interview or is it potentially just how bad things are for him right now with COVID and the general competency?

[00:06:56] Yeah I'm always hesitant to read too much into this. What we know is that Joe Biden, yeah I think that this was a hard decision for him to make that this was really something that from all reports

[00:07:09] really was eating at him and he was thinking over very carefully with a couple of close advisors and then family members. The thing that surprised me was that with his most senior staff they had a video conference at 145 Eastern and he clicked send on the tweet

[00:07:28] at what was it 146. Yeah that is how little time even his most senior advisors had so given how close they kept this to the vest I'm not surprised that it didn't go out in some sort of a pre-recorded video or some sort of announcement that you need to

[00:07:47] rely on a wider circle to really get. It doesn't take much to write up a letter scan it back in load in a tweet so if you're really hanging onto the last second don't want it to leak out and want to be the one who breaks your

[00:08:02] own news about your political future I think it makes sense from that standpoint. The things that have surprised me since then are that the White House Chief of Staff is the one who is calling cabinet secretaries and telling them that Biden is not going to run for reelection

[00:08:18] and it is that we haven't seen anything really since this letter went out that there was no follow-up that there was no plan for yesterday evening certainly today nothing this week we got another letter from the president's doctor saying that he's on

[00:08:34] Plexigrad that he's recovering well from COVID but we still haven't seen him there's nothing on his official or unofficial schedules and that's really surprising to me is that I understand the keeping it close and putting out that letter initially

[00:08:51] but now what and I think everyone's waiting and I don't know if he's waiting because he doesn't want to step on vice president Harris's news she certainly I think has some momentum as she's rallying the troops getting

[00:09:05] everybody within the Democratic Party really on board for the most part and then raised a quarter billion dollars yesterday that's no small thing it's possible that he's being a team player but yeah I don't know that I fully buy into the idea that

[00:09:20] Biden is over there being a team player and that he's not stewing in Rehoboth and yeah just mad and mad at the world. Mark you've worked in communications, advised campaigns do you think that it's odd that we haven't seen

[00:09:36] visually anything from Biden making this announcement and do you think that's I think one way of looking at it that it is strategic or should we just get it over with have them do the video and then we can officially

[00:09:47] move on and it's officially Harris. Yeah it's definitely a little odd that an announcement of that magnitude would not be accompanied by a photo or a video and I know they say he said COVID since Wednesday I'm not disputing

[00:10:02] that but that's how many days into it by that point four days it's certainly unusual for an announcement of that magnitude to just come out on Twitter like that. I just he and his family they just may no

[00:10:16] longer care about that sort of thing right it's just such a wrenching decision for him personally that maybe that they don't care they just wanted to get it over with and that was the easiest way for him to deal with it

[00:10:26] and they just made that decision with the small circle of advisors and letting Connelly take over center stage now. Michael I wanted to say at the onset stewing in Rehoboth is now potentially going to be a fantasy football name or potentially a garage

[00:10:43] band name because that was a great reference I'm going to take credit for right now that's a great line John. So a couple things I knew it was real because Mark Drake sent it to me and he has no history of ever sending me a

[00:10:54] false flag or any misinformation he's very good about that I knew it was serious knew it was true I was also watching catching up on Veep which was just fitting and yes I want to separate two things here for a second I want to separate the candidate

[00:11:08] Trump versus candidate Biden versus president Biden my concern and I didn't jump on this right away but the debate performance was shocking to a lot of people and all of us too we had a discussion on it I think that the questions I have right now is not

[00:11:22] about candidate Biden getting in this mix it's what's going on with the president right now where is he and how is he doing and what's going on I think that the format of the letter how it was presented the fact that we're hearing information about his symptoms and

[00:11:39] relatively mild I it does raise some concerns I do think it would be good if he were to come on and give some type of statement and speak I know he's gonna do that in the coming days

[00:11:50] but I think by now it's I think it's reasonable to ask some questions because there has been such a concern about what's been going on when the cameras aren't around and the functions of the office I think it would be normal for him for I think it's

[00:12:07] I think there's a number of concerns I think that we're all looking at but my concern is separate from the campaign as Mark pointed out this is a gut-wrenching decision I wouldn't expect him to

[00:12:18] embrace and be a part of the campaign but he does have a job to do as president of the United States I know he's not feeling with dealing with COVID I will say that I have been paying much more

[00:12:30] attention to his physical presence when he's been on TV and I thought the video of him coming back after he had been diagnosed with COVID was probably the slowest I've seen him and so I think the questions and concerns

[00:12:44] about how he's doing and what's going on are valid and I think it'd be good for him to come out and give some statement I'm not joining in on the calls that he has to do it by 5 p.m. tonight to show

[00:12:56] some proof of life but I do think it would be good for him to relay some concerns about how he's doing and reassure the country that the chief executive that's occupying the office of the presidency right now

[00:13:07] is in the position to lead and continue to run the office I completely agree I think it's super valid my mom texted me on Sunday saying you know do a republican sending around talking points because I heard

[00:13:20] Mike Johnson say this and I heard Tom Emmer say if he's not fit to be candidate he's not fit for office and like you Michael I'm not saying we need some proof of life but I feel like Americans do deserve to have a little

[00:13:34] confidence in the leader of our country to that that he is alive and well and that he is able to function for the next five months here and protect all of us and our homeland and that's

[00:13:45] something that I think he should do and I think he should do sooner than later and I think as the hours go on and that doesn't happen I think it is more and more concerning why he can't just he doesn't have much on

[00:13:57] his calendar why can't we get a a five minute scripted video of him just to sit there and say hey guys I'm healthy not feeling the greatest chat with you next week I just feel like there should be something more

[00:14:08] there and republicans are going to continue to hit home on this and I think republicans it they have dueling things now they now biden as president is what they're going to hit on and also obviously having some new angles going towards this whole situation the chaos

[00:14:23] on the democratic side and I want to open end the question and if anybody who just wants to jump in if you have an answer to this or have any thoughts on it but I saw a meme over the weekend of

[00:14:32] would democrats quote unquote let republicans switch the nominee this late in the process if they were not pulling well meaning is this something if the rules were reversed it's a little sketchy right we are all in agreement that it's largely because of

[00:14:47] the polls and that he's going to lose to trump if biden stays on the ticket in addition to obviously all sorts of other things but if the rules were reversed would the press and the democrats not be having an absolute field day of them circumventing this process that's

[00:15:00] set up to elect the nominees anyone john what a win for bringing back smoke filled rooms we've got a you know world where essentially looks like the democrats have gotten their way on this but I do think that there's some risk involved

[00:15:18] here for the democrats right the reason that they got themselves into this mess this mess is because they essentially set this process up where the primary was a coronation for joe biden to become the nominee again they shielded him from primary

[00:15:33] opponents they shielded him from having to campaign they shielded him from having to do any of that work even as people like dean philips and mary and williamson were out there trying to give people a a choice the dnc shifted up the schedule they cancelled debates they

[00:15:50] really put their thumb on the scale to coronate joe biden and now we're seeing the coronation of kamala harris being picked by the party insiders the party elites saying this is going to be the nominee that

[00:16:02] replaces you and that's a real risk in that if you look back to 2019 and the early days of that presidential campaign kamala harris was not a particularly strong candidate she was awkward she was weird on the campaign trail she didn't click

[00:16:18] you know i think when she's in prosecutor mode she's at her best but when she is in candidate mode and she's trying to be deep you know i almost wonder if the writers of veep were time travelers and went back in time to base selena mire on her

[00:16:35] but just the things that she says and the way that she speaks really it's like a character of what kind of really bad politician would do so i think there's some risk involved there was they clear the field for her much like they did for joe biden and

[00:16:51] maybe we would have figured out more than four months from the election that joe biden had some serious liabilities heading into a general election if uh they had allowed him to be tested and i don't know that the democrats have really thought about what happens

[00:17:04] when they find out that kamala harris had some real vulnerabilities that maybe would have been exposed in a short sprint primary this kind of coronation i think just to be very clear they haven't had a convention yet

[00:17:17] there hasn't been a nomination they are well within their rights to nominate whomever they would like for any reason joe biden can release his delegates there's you know nothing that prevents them from putting her name on the ballot heading into november uh but i think the question is

[00:17:34] whether they should be doing it the way that they're doing it and i think that there's just a lot of risk involved in that strategy so let's get into this a little bit because we first of all i gotta make a

[00:17:44] pitch if it's been mentioned twice here if you haven't watched vb you you need to go watch vb because you're right flinemeyer is kamala harris but so we we are we're effectively recording this episode with the understanding that kamala is is going

[00:17:59] to be the pick we'll come back and do a special episode if that somehow becomes not the case but i'm interested to see i always love infighting seeing that amongst the democrats i'm interested to see as they come if we see some people being really

[00:18:13] vocally and publicly upset about this essentially just being handed over to kamala but so far most of the speculated candidates or other potential candidates that have been speculated have endorsed we've got whitmer newsem buddha jid shapiro kelly basheer i mean they're all come out thrown their way behind

[00:18:32] harris um it's really just person after person has done so i to they correct me if i'm wrong i haven't seen any big name people not or point them elsewhere there are a couple that there were still waiting on

[00:18:44] as time of recording this i don't believe obama's come out and some others that folks are certainly waiting on here in minnesota so far we've had cheer martin governor walls ellison clova char smith mcullum olmar craig have all endorsed harris

[00:18:58] dean philips would like a straw pool um uh maybe some sort of debate at the convention i love him for being philips wanting the conversation and going down that road i doubt we'll get that

[00:19:08] but hey more power to him for being the leader and saying the quiet thing out loud so i do i want to chat a little bit now about johnny alluded to some of the kamala problems i've seen a bunch of articles

[00:19:19] already pointing to the prosecutor versus the felon and kind of setting it up on that but to your point there are a lot of vulnerabilities about kamala and obviously we can all probably right now point to a half dozen or more word salad completely flubbed speeches and public

[00:19:35] appearances she has and she's got immigration and this whole debacle that is immigration that she's been propped up as the czar the leader of um michael i want to get your initial take of kamala as a candidate and what you think what the democrats

[00:19:50] running and pushing her now forward aside from some of the reasons financially why that might be the case one of the things i think is very interesting about it's going to be kamala harrison i want to give a

[00:20:01] shout out to my i want to give a shout out to my sister-in-law who mentioned this on on saturday when i was with her down in iowa and she said wouldn't it be a smart move if needed that biden

[00:20:13] that biden step back and give her an opportunity to lead in the office and i think that's something that's i still think is an absolute possibility and i want to set the table to that i think john and we've all articulated and john was going through the scenario

[00:20:26] what the democrats did to make this possible and how they bypassed the process and that's a card that i think is still an option to them that i think that the democrats have done the hardest part now which is they took the car keys away from from

[00:20:41] from biden and now the question is do they do more and i i think it's pretty clear at least from my perspective i think the democrats would be willing to do anything they need to do at this point to try to prevent donald trump from being the presidential

[00:20:55] from winning the office of the presidency and i think if there is a perceived benefit to giving harris the keys to the white house early i think the democrats will do that but i think there are a number of challenges

[00:21:06] that she will have independent of that i think there's some challenges that as john articulated she was not doing well when she ran for president in 2000 got out and so i think that they have rushed this process a bit i i agree with congressman

[00:21:20] philips and bless his heart for going out there and suggesting ideas but to john's point and to becky as you framed up the question i do think that she's going to have some vulnerabilities and a truncated in process of getting her the nomination which is now

[00:21:36] moving at lightning speed i think it's going to deny the opportunity for democrats the press and others to kick the tires a little bit respectfully as we do on candidates in this process and i think there's going to be a number of potential

[00:21:48] vulnerabilities that come out i don't want to answer for mark but i'd like mark to possibly if he can give a discussion of what he's told me over the of the couple week what would he expects the next couple weeks to be

[00:22:02] for buy for harris because i think his insight of some of the discussions we had is likely where i think this could go yeah to michael's point i think the common harris definitely has a number of vulnerabilities that the trump campaign

[00:22:15] is going to seize on and hammer her on and first and foremost would be the border and then inflation but common harris is never someone who she's never had to really appeal to swing voters

[00:22:29] obviously she was biden's running mate but she was not at the top of the ticket california is a very liberal state so she's never had to temper her tone or her votes or her comments really and i don't know how well she's going to

[00:22:41] play in michigan, san janea, wisconsin i was doing some looking at the electoral college map yesterday erd when biden made his announcement and i think trump is probably at 262 electoral votes pretty much in the bank because you look at you consider all the states he won in 2020

[00:23:01] and then i think he probably wins arizona in georgia and that takes him to 262 right there when you add all the states from 2020 with those two states so he only needs pennsylvania michigan or wisconsin and it's over so he just needs one of those

[00:23:16] three and it's over if he does that so i think it's tough for her i think the democrats probably went from a 20 chance of winning to maybe 35 but it's tough and comal is not

[00:23:29] i don't know how much appeal she's going to have in those three states at the top of the ticket mark one of the discussions we've had is about and where i was going with with my my lead in there was

[00:23:39] you have in some of our offline discussions you've said what the next couple weeks are going to be like in terms of the media framing of comal Harris can you talk about that for a second kind of your kind of

[00:23:48] expectation and what you think yeah i i think the media the national media is gonna combo is gonna have a halo on her head and this is going to be the greatest thing since slice bread this campaign which it'll allow her to reintroduce herself

[00:24:04] to the public i think i'm not sure how well that's going to work but i do think obviously the democrats and their friends in the national media will do everything to make sure she has a successful

[00:24:14] reintroduction to the public and i think some of that's going to be comal is really a moderate because she was a prosecutor that sort of thing i think that's an interesting way of looking at things because she certainly

[00:24:28] does need to be reintroduced while she does have above all of most of the other according to polls of most of the other contenders she does have the highest name id so she has that going for her but she

[00:24:39] still is not universally known like a biden or a trump and so there's certainly going to be a lot of work that needs to be done on that and you're right she's the savior she came in and she's

[00:24:48] rescuing the democratic party and so i think it is going to be interesting and probably cringe worthy to watch the parade and watch the fanfare fawning over her but we'll stomach it and analyze it and have all sorts of conversations where

[00:25:04] we probably will make some jokes about it so i can't wait for that side of things moving forward we chatted a little bit from it john you just got back from the rnc convention dnc convention is in august

[00:25:15] articles are saying that the rules committee is going to meet this week they need to call potentially are gonna still call a virtual roll call vote yet to be determined what that actually looks like all hinging on the ohio ballot eligibility which is a deadline of august 7th

[00:25:29] which is before their convention because this was planned so well so technically from my understanding of things like michael mentioned i believe biden can release his candidates but until that is officially i don't know what the official way about doing that there is no

[00:25:45] real mechanism from defector for defectors at this point i assume if that endorsement does not do that then he'll tweet or do whatever he needs to do but any idea what this looks like in terms of dnc this is obviously

[00:25:57] historic we've never seen this before any idea of what they need to do rules are the like to be able to transition from biden who all these delegates are bound to yeah i think looking at this you know there's still some kind of uncertainty about whether

[00:26:14] or not ohio's august 7th deadline is really in place the legislature did move that back but it is a moved back effective september 1st so i think that there's some democratic strategists and people sitting over there saying

[00:26:32] ooh do we really think that ohio is going to stand by this legislative change that they made so i think that the democrats are probably going to operate from a assumption of safe versus sorry and still try and get it in under that august 7th deadline

[00:26:51] the thing that will be interesting to see is how many of these states come through and unanimously decide to throw their support to harris know that i've seen a lot of big states where their delegates have already had a

[00:27:04] virtual roll call within their state announcing that they are unanimously backing the vice president so this thing very well could be sewn up by the end of the week with nobody else really getting into the mix and the delegates being essentially released and

[00:27:22] rebound because they're deciding to bind themselves to the harris campaign so i think it's going to be a short sprint but if i had to guess this thing's pretty wrapped up by the time that we hit august 1st. marker michael any other insider takes

[00:27:39] undecency rules yeah i would argue to john's point that i think kamo's already got it sewn up i don't see the upside for anyone to challenge her really at this point she has all the institutional support bomb is really the only sort of major figure that

[00:27:54] hasn't endorsed her yet what would be the upside to take her on right now if you have ambitions to run in 2028 if she loses hey you were a team player you were there fighting a good fight with the rest

[00:28:06] of the team so there's real no real upside to take her on at this point i would say that i was looking at the real clear politics direction of the country and i know the democrats are

[00:28:17] on a bit of a sugar high here with the relieved bides off the ticket obviously but the right track number average right now is 23% wrong track 67 so i think everyone's losing sight of that a little bit and the sugar higher with kamala's

[00:28:32] entrance into the race so i'll just throw that out there and the people who don't seem to be losing track of that are those 2028 contenders who everybody was rumoring and saying might run this year if you've got your eyes on 2028

[00:28:48] if it seems like kamala is the preferred outcome here you talk about why do you throw yourself into this that's doubly so when you look at the fact that even as mark was just saying what the democrats have maybe a 30

[00:29:00] 35 chance to win the white house that they have a really steep hill to climb burning your political capital and your chances at 2028 to be the guy who loses to kamala as she goes on to lose to donald trump

[00:29:14] is really not a appealing thing i think for a lot of those people so there's a lot there and like i was saying like looking at kamala harris's approval rating what her approval rating is sub 40 she's minus 15 to minus 20 on the image

[00:29:32] depending on which surveys you're looking at that just gets to how bad were joe biden's chances where this is the better choice for the democrats this reminds me of the movie argo when he says this is the best bad option that we have

[00:29:49] to me that's like this is the best bad option that we have about what they decide to do one one thing i two things i'm watching out about the convention number one i think that i'm interested is if they're opening up of the process getting a new nominee

[00:30:03] getting a new running mate for harris if that does anything potentially on the platform if there's any type of concessions that need to be made one of the issues that becky we've discussed

[00:30:14] is uncommitted concerns about what's going on in the middle east israel ahmas what's going on in gaza palisthenia that entire part of the country uncommitted was a big block there was already some rumblings i think significant rumblings that the convention in chicago could be content

[00:30:31] could be some fights and contentious and so i'm very curious to see if any platform issues get reintroduced or if there's any of that type of thing but i will say to you i was down in isla

[00:30:42] at a family reunion for a family wedding reception when i was down there and i was and i used this analogy down there when i was talking about this and i said when the news broke i said

[00:30:51] what may happen now with biden stepping back and that is going to change the focus of the convention where i think at least one night or so it's going to be all focused on biden

[00:31:02] and a cheering and he's doing the he's throwing himself and save democracy and all that type of stuff that may change the ability for people to want to mess around at the convention it's that there was a family fight right before your parents fiftieth wedding anniversary celebration

[00:31:18] like you go to them and say look you go to your siblings and say nobody make a stink it's mom and dad's event tonight nobody make a stink here at the can nobody fight dinner

[00:31:26] tonight it's all be on our best behavior let's do it for mom and dad and so i'm wondering if using that kind of family kind of event if the fact that the entire election map

[00:31:38] the strategy has been thrown out if there is a possibility because of how it is now if that's less likely of that there's going to be some disruptions or i think it's more likely i think and i'll be as bipartisan i can with this republicans and democrats have

[00:31:54] an element of their parties where they just people love to make trouble on any given situation so i wonder though if what's happened here in the last 24 to 48 hours if that changes the likelihood

[00:32:09] of there being disruptions on any policy issues at the convention whether the biden stepping away changes the toner thing that's something i am watching for about about introduction on platform issues particularly related to the middle east and other things

[00:32:23] so we spoke about a few weeks ago how the delegates at the national convention are largely biden's folks anyways right the campaigns kind of work within the parties to get their folks elected to be their delegates at the national convention so that's no real shock but do i

[00:32:39] michael i'm going to throw back to you first when we talk about the money side of things as of the last report biden had some 91 million dollars cash on hand sitting in the bank and from democrat interpretations of it and and some legal

[00:32:53] interpretations and potentially the fec's interpretations because that money is filed under biden and harris they're saying that essentially that money can be now harris right the biden for president has already filed their paperwork to change it to harris for president

[00:33:09] do we think i'm going to pose the hypothetical if that was not the case if that money could be transitioned to whoever was the next candidate do you think it still would have been harris

[00:33:20] the money helps i think the fact that they can transfer it to her i think helps their argument i'll leave it up to others on the call to answer is if harris and biden it's if biden and harris

[00:33:29] had both stepped back and it was going to another entity i don't think that money could have been transferred i don't i will also say to you we this isn't for a discussion today it's something to

[00:33:39] watch i think is potential legal challenges i don't know if there's going to be a legal challenge on that i don't i think that the democrats are playing a confidence game a bit about the that by

[00:33:49] changing the name i think i've heard some rumblings about potential lawsuits and i think it's something to watch i think that the fact that it was harris already on the committee

[00:33:59] i think that she just slid into that spot and i think that tidied up a problem but if it if they didn't have harris i think there would have been a real issue with that money and what they could

[00:34:08] have done with it because the sizable amount of money and to john's point about how much they've raised having that legal entity that it can go to is certainly an appealing part of the cleanup

[00:34:19] process in this it made it much easier in my perspective john your thoughts i think we discussed that there were a couple of things that you could have done with the bulk of the money

[00:34:31] in that account whether it's transfers to party committees transfers to a 527 type group transfers to another kind of outside group this certainly makes it easier candidate dollars and those kind of hard dollar 3300 dollar increments are always the hardest to raise so yeah i think it's a

[00:34:49] benefit there but by all reports biden's campaign had started to raise a lot less money he was down under 25 million dollars over the course of the last month this has been a really hard month for them

[00:35:02] and i think regardless of who came out of this thing and regardless of who came forward to be the party's new standard bearer in their nominee i think there was just always going to be that

[00:35:12] shot in the arm of just a jolt right where harris raised what 100 million dollars in small dollar contributions yesterday raised another 150 for the super PAC yesterday who might have a half billion dollar week that's nuts to think about yeah that would this is has obviously energized

[00:35:35] the democrats i think in a way where we've talked about those double haters we've talked about the fact that roughly half of the democratic party thought that joe biden was too old and lacked the

[00:35:46] mental capacity to be the president to be the candidate nominee so i think that there were some real concerns on the democratic side about what his staying in the race meant and just because he was their guy and they were riding with biden didn't mean they were excited

[00:36:02] to ride with biden so i think there's definitely some enthusiasm and this is something that the country has been you know telling pollsters and telling us that they have been hungry for quite a

[00:36:12] long time which is they didn't want donald trump or joe biden and they've gotten their way where they're not going to see that and this is the first election in a long time right was the

[00:36:23] first election since 1974 that won't have a bush clinton or biden on the ballot which is really remarkable to think about we're talking about it's been 50 years where there has been a bush

[00:36:35] a clinton or a biden on the ticket in every presidential race a brave new future where we're staking that out where we can move beyond those three families but i think like i said there was

[00:36:47] a lot of pent up energy excitement and small dollars sitting on the sideline ready to go for whoever it was i like your shout out i believe to chair martin's statement riding with biden

[00:36:58] tell biden's not riding great little drop there mark because i also love to pit people against each other do you agree with michael that you don't know if you'll see any financial or any

[00:37:07] challenges to the financial transfer here you may see them i think the democrats were probably pretty confident that they're going to succeed there all right i really think that they're going to push

[00:37:19] hard i think republicans are going to push hard on this because we love a good court case so that's my expectation here i'm going to go into now the state of the race trump v

[00:37:28] actually i'm going to take that back i'm going to say trump v harris this is one thing that i'm going to defend miss vice president on we often a big pep peeve of mine is when a female

[00:37:36] candidate's in the race we call them by their first name we call them men by their last name we're going to go but worth harris and and not be referring to her as kamala here

[00:37:44] john you stole my thunder i was that that that stat of the 50 years since no clinton clinton bush or biden on the ticket i think is just absolutely fascinating another fascinating historical context that i have here is that harris would be the first democratic nominee

[00:38:00] from the west in the entire history of the party so far the furthest west was democrats were george mcgovern from south dakota in 1972 and william jennings bryan from nebraska in 1895 1900 1908 michael year skeptical lucked is that not correct no i'm just running the numbers i'm

[00:38:19] going through my head i can pull i'm just i've a i'm pulling it's right i just it surprises me because i'm like wait a second no you're spot on i'm just actually shocking and not something i

[00:38:31] ever thought about mark i can think of candidates that ran from the west but not ever the nominee mark can you think of any no i think becky's right there it's well first of all i read it in an article

[00:38:44] no one does better show prep than becky and i am just it's just when she said i'm like wow that but it's right it's just i'm trying to run it in my head that's amazing so we have not

[00:38:53] so kamala harris will be the first democratic nominee from the west and you're defining the west as south korea nebraska as furthest west as it goes wow that's a great figure that's a great stat thanks

[00:39:07] i thought so too um looking at the polls and you guys have our very well articulated the fact that it is going to be a hard road to victory for any democratic candidate some recent polls

[00:39:19] in some of the key states have trump up six in pennsylvania this is trump v harris in the polls obviously then hypothetical from early july 10th to the 12th trumps up six in pennsylvania up two

[00:39:30] in michigan one in wisconsin and eight in arizona we are just slightly over a hundred days until the election there's a lot of work to do and and obviously with it being harris versus some others

[00:39:42] we're understanding that the transfer is a little easier with staff and campaign infrastructure and finances and all of that and we've spoken to this a little bit but mark i'm going to start with you

[00:39:54] curious about talk to us a little bit about the enthusiasm gap that potentially now is getting closed without having biden on the ticket we have seen that harris pulls better than biden with

[00:40:05] women and with minorities and some of those undecideds in the middle what does this look like aside from aside from the electoral college numbers but just based on looking at support and polls

[00:40:16] yeah so i do think you're going to see a surge of enthusiasm here out of the gate for harris in terms of fundraising enthusiasm i think democrats were obviously desperate to get biden off

[00:40:26] the ticket the question is on a hundred some days is that enthusiasm still going to be there how is camo harris going to handle herself as a candidate as john and michael mentioned at the

[00:40:36] outset when she did run on her own in 2019 she didn't even make it to the iowa caucus her campaign was such a disaster and again she's never had to appeal to a broad-based electorate she's running california run successfully but it's a very different electorate i would say

[00:40:53] in wisconsin than it would be in california in terms of the ideological makeup of the voters so she's got her work cut out for i think she's i guess is she's not going to wear well

[00:41:06] over the long term just given what i i know of her and the campaign she ran in 2019 was not successful i do i do think she's far left i think people have pretty much made up

[00:41:19] their minds on trump for the last eight nine years the question is how is camo going to do with working white men in in pennsylvania michigan wisconsin i think that's the question of the

[00:41:30] election who's going to win whoever if someone wins those three states are the president i think that's pretty clear but if trump just wins one of them he's the president john we talked

[00:41:41] or a tweet that i saw that just today was franklin's tweet that talked about camo harris's path to victory and it will really hinge on three quick key questions can she name any successes as vp

[00:41:52] can she relate to swing state voters and can she win over those anti-trump voters but who were not the double haters who didn't want to vote for biden what's your part with the last one

[00:42:00] on the double haters and i think that as we look at those there's two distinct buckets of the double haters so for by and large those double haters are people who did not like donald trump

[00:42:12] in 2016 they didn't like donald trump in 2020 maybe they voted for evan mcmullin or gary johnson or did a write-in you wrote in romney or rubio or whatever it might be in 16 in 2020 they you

[00:42:27] were exhausted they were beaten down maybe they voted for joe biden there's a couple of different baskets of them one is the basket of people who are a double hater and have come to regret

[00:42:38] their vote for joe biden because these are not you know for the most part these are not liberal voters these are center left center they probably were not aligned with joe biden but they wanted

[00:42:50] some normalcy and they were promised that we would get back to normal they didn't get it so there's a policy sect of these double haters on the flip side there were some very joe biden specific

[00:43:01] double haters who thought that he was too old that he lacked the the mental capabilities to be the president and were throwing their hands up and saying really these are my two choices

[00:43:12] and so i think those voters who thought that joe biden was too old those are in play for joe biden to or for the vice president to go try and get the policy ones she has all of the

[00:43:24] failings of the biden administration and then some right she ran very far left in 2019 let's not forget that she ran on the platform of banning plastic straws she ran on the platform of banning

[00:43:37] fracking of banning private health insurance she has advocated for a wealth tax yeah if you don't like the policies that joe biden pushed you're gonna hate the policies that vice president

[00:43:48] harris wants to push so i think that there's still a a lot going on there specifically with regard to fracking right that's a huge one in pennsylvania and pennsylvania i think is my tipping point

[00:44:01] state that i'm watching and i don't see a path for a democratic candidate to win without winning pennsylvania we talked about georgia arguably looking like it is going back to being a red state arizona certainly looking that way north carolina certainly looking that way pennsylvania really

[00:44:21] is that last piece and i think it's the most likely to flip of the blue wall of pennsylvania michigan wisconsin but they need to win all three of those states in order to get across the

[00:44:34] finish lines i'm watching there as far as whether or not she can connect or not i think she does have some strengths that joe biden doesn't have she's going to be able to cobble together

[00:44:46] have an easier time pulling together a traditionally democratic coalition in order to get across the finish line i think there's early indications that women are more enthusiastic that's one of those areas non-college educated white women are one of those areas that joe

[00:45:04] biden was really struggling with this time and then college educated white men you know is another bucket where joe biden did well in 2020 but was really struggling this time so i think looking

[00:45:17] at how she connects there there's certainly room to grow but all of this is in the context of uh if you look at this the dates and the scheduling there are four weeks between the last day of the dnc

[00:45:33] and when early voting in minnesota starts you know she has a four-week run from the time that she's the actual nominee until voting starts so that could be good for her it's fewer opportunities

[00:45:47] for her to talk about being unburdened by what has been undone but it also is a really short opportunity to introduce yourself and get out from underneath biden shadow he also was out talking

[00:46:00] and they said what would you say to vladimir putin about invading ukraine she said don't right don't what would you say to the people coming across the board don't come it's there are absolutely

[00:46:12] failures that she will have to own from the biden administration and some real vulnerabilities on her own agenda and her own platform as well yeah i think republicans are excited to have that

[00:46:23] conversation yeah i think the people who are most disappointed are the people who have to redecorate the trump campaign's office down in palm palm beach because the wall you know as you walk in said

[00:46:33] joe biden is failed weak and dishonest now they need to come up with some new art as you walk into their hallway and head into the office one question before we move on to the next

[00:46:45] subject is if this had been made both prior to the republican national convention do you think trump would have what it would have changed the calculus in how trump made his pick for vp and

[00:46:59] would this have changed the dynamic i think it would have possibly but i want to let others answer first i will say no i think it's advanced pick looks pretty um obvious in retrospect

[00:47:11] i think trump wants someone who can be that heir apparent for him when he's off this when he's no longer president if he's president again so i don't think you know he would have said oh i

[00:47:21] should have picked nicky hailey because she'd run better in the suburbs i just don't think so yeah full agreement there that was a very confident pick and a legacy pick uh i do think

[00:47:33] that trump world did see this coming though right he took active strides to try and not mention joe biden in his speech on thursday night every critique and people said oh he was very focused

[00:47:45] on joe biden and if you actually go listen to the speech he was very focused on the administration and all of his critiques were the administration has failed on the border the administration

[00:47:56] has failed on inflation he very much was hedging his bets on the fact that it would be vice president harris i'd like to becky yeah i don't know because i didn't actually think it was

[00:48:10] going to be advanced until it was so maybe i haven't thought much about it i think it's an interesting question though i think it's always smart to have some balance and so i would like to believe

[00:48:23] that they would have made a different decision but it's clear based on the wisdom of others that's probably not the case i think it may have had a little may have been a little bit of a

[00:48:30] different decision but we're our way we are and we can move on but i think it's going to be very curious to see the appeal i think a subject becky we've spoken a lot about is engaging female voters

[00:48:42] and so i'll be very curious how that's the number i'm going to be watching i'm not to say that all women vote in the block but just their engagement and how republicans are going to be able to

[00:48:52] tap into that but that's going to be something to watch on my end ductailing off our vp conversation let's chat potential harris vp pic maybe in the asked and answered question governor walls anybody

[00:49:05] any takers hi on the list michael thoughts i don't think it's going to be walls but i absolutely think he his name should be in the mix we can go back becky this would be a perfect opportunity

[00:49:16] for you to remind our listeners something which is since you endorse governor walls for governor would you endorse him as vp i think his name should absolutely be in the mix i've tried to offer fair analysis on this podcast becky contrary your desire to want to pit people

[00:49:31] against each other which you disclosed for the first time on what you love to do i think walls will be in the mix i think i'll leave it to others to articulate the reasons why they think not

[00:49:40] but i think his name is in the mix and in fact we did an episode a segment of an episode discussing why he should be considered in the mix i ultimately don't think it will be him but i think it's

[00:49:51] completely reasonable to have his name in the mix but i'll leave it for others to debate the pros and cons right now john you spent a lot of time articulating walls is shortcomings do you think

[00:50:03] he should be on the shortlist here for vp a generic white governor from nebraska i don't think brings a whole lot to the mix if you're the vice president looking to expand the appeal

[00:50:17] he also has governed from the far left so well he may have had a reputation as somewhat of a centrist while he was in congress he has abandoned that and run and embraced all of the policies

[00:50:31] and agenda of the squad running to the far left and appeasing the socialists in minneapolis on his in his base so i think yeah there's really not a lot of upside there i think somebody

[00:50:44] like a josh apiro would make a lot of sense a dark horse who i think would make a lot of sense would be jerry polis from colorado who could have kind of some cross appeal although i've

[00:50:56] got to read this tweet because his quote was by far my favorite quote of anybody in the veep stakes and he said if they do the polling and it turns out they need a 49 year old bald

[00:51:08] engage you from boulder colorado they've got my number hard to not like uh governor polis but i think he would provide some much needed balance ideologically to that ticket uh but i think governor

[00:51:23] shepiro governor cooper also would be really interesting you know i don't know that i'm sold on westmore or andy basher you know i don't know that a nepo baby from kentucky really gets

[00:51:35] you much but that's up to others to decide i want to get more into some of these potential picks i gotta say i had that quote in my show prep as well i saw it and laughed out loud i think it's great

[00:51:48] mark i want to before we move on to chatting about other potentials any thoughts on the walls i think it'd be hard for walls to be the vp pick i don't think he would bring much to the ticket

[00:51:59] and then there's the fact that eric holder is the guy doing the vetting and walls once held him in voted to hold him in criminal contempt over fast and furious when he was a member of congress

[00:52:10] i might be a little awkward for eric holder but stranger things have happened i doubt it some of the names in addition john you rattled off a few and just have a list here of some of

[00:52:19] the recurring names i was seeing transportation secretary p bootage pennsylvania governor shepiro california governor newson kentucky governor basher illinois governor north kirline a governor arizona senator mark kelly michigan governor gretchen whitmer was on the list and now she's

[00:52:35] going to be the campaign chair and has said that she she's good at with being harris's campaign chair is not planning to also be in the sweepstakes here the veep stakes but as i

[00:52:47] listed all of that off a lot of those are hitting kind of those key states that we were talking about the pennsylvania north keralina michigan states michael what's your take if you were

[00:52:58] naming a top two maybe put governor walls further down on on the list but if you were naming top two who is most advantageous who do you think would bring the most to the ticket for harris

[00:53:08] i think i mark kelly i think the astronauts a great pick military background swing state come to realize i've my apparently i've always wanted to be an astronaut because once i heard

[00:53:20] you gotta go with the astronaut i know that doesn't speak well of john glenn god rest his soul when he ran for president in 1984 i still think he has a debt from that campaign but i have an affinity

[00:53:29] for astronauts and i think mark kelly would be a great pick the other one i agree with john's analysis about those i think potentially cooper of north carolina i think would be an interesting

[00:53:40] pick but i'm really if i were to rank them i don't think walls is going to be picked but i really think if i'm raking them right now i think mark kelly and roi cooper are the ones

[00:53:49] where i think the numbers are going to look at where i think people are going to get some attention to but that's where i think again i'm rooting for the astronaut that's who i because i always want

[00:53:57] astronauts to succeed so i'm rooting for the astronaut mark any of these play higher than others for you kelly would be an interesting pick that would be a all west coast ticket reminds me of clinton gore 92 where you have the geographic they're both from roughly the same

[00:54:16] area that would be an interesting pick i think josh apiro would be a strong pick for her given his popularity in petzolvania yeah don't see walls obviously whitmer said she's out of contention

[00:54:29] today but biden was not going to get out of the race so things can change in politics and new sim is out new sim's hour 12th amendment right yeah explain that to our listeners explain

[00:54:40] that to our listeners so 12th amendment states that the vice president can't have the same state of residency the downside is that those state's electors are not in play if you go that route

[00:54:53] if i recall correctly right that would be a big problem if you're a democratic candidate and you can't get electors out of california 54 electoral votes and so what that means for listeners so fact that kamala harris the vice president is from california and the governor

[00:55:10] gavin new sims from california they can't be on the same ticket thank you for explaining that for our listeners done that's all i got anybody have any other takes of the path forward for

[00:55:19] kamala harris what it means for the democrats or are we just excited to watch the chaos unfold and come back in a few weeks after the convention and see how polls are looking yeah i would just

[00:55:30] encourage it all the listeners and everyone obviously participated to show it just think about what we've seen in the last what nine days donald trump was nearly assassinated and you had the convention and then joe biden dropped off the ticket the first time we've seen something like that

[00:55:46] in 56 years we've obviously never seen anything uh like that happened so late in the campaign for the person at the top of the ticket so it's been a crazy campaign and who knows there may

[00:55:56] be more surprises ahead one last question before we shut it down here is i'm curious about polling and when do you guys think that we can see some credible polling on a head to head is there a

[00:56:10] buffer is now the right time to be doing it when do you when are you guys gauging in your interest or your credit when a poll you think comes out and when we can lean into it a bit and

[00:56:20] actually leave some information yeah i think i would largely take the polls that are coming out right now the snap polls with a grain of salt really you like to see them over multiple nights

[00:56:32] when they're conducted everything that we've seen so far i think is a one-day yeah gut check response i wouldn't be surprised if harris sees a little bit of a surge normally we see a surge a host

[00:56:46] convention bump so i think this might be the high watermark for both uh candidates if you were to go out and feel the survey late this week but i think probably sunday saturday night sunday is when

[00:56:58] you'll start to see some well done surveys beyond kind of the things that ppp puts out to get clicks and try and get attention for themselves i think they were among the first to have

[00:57:11] surveys out today across some of these battleground states but grains of salt because it's ppp margany final thoughts on that yeah i think john's right there regard regarding the polling piece it'll be interesting to see how kamala is looking coming out of their convention

[00:57:28] when they have a vice president i think we have a lot i think we have a lot to to see her first big addresses hearing what president biden comes out and says and win

[00:57:40] i think most importantly there is certainly a lot going on the dnc rules committee is going to be meeting this wednesday i'm sure we'll start to have a better picture of what that's

[00:57:50] going to look like and how that process is going to play out we have this is we're it's a wild campaign season and we have over a hundred days left so there's going to be a lot of stuff for us

[00:58:00] to continue to chat with i'm sure we'll be chatting with you guys sooner than later so thank you so much for your time and your insight we really appreciate it and can't believe that this

[00:58:10] is a real life episodes and seasons of veep where we're living but who knows what's next thanks guys we want to thank you for listening to the breakdown with broadcore rebecca before we go show some

[00:58:23] love for your favorite podcast by leaving us review on apple podcast or in the platform where you listen you can also leave a review or give us a shout out on our website or across all social

[00:58:33] media platforms at bd break pod the breakdown with broadcore rebecca will return next week thank you for listening