Becky Scherr and Michael Brodkorb preview Minnesota’s Primary Election next Tuesday, stressing uncertainty, turnout, and unreliable polling while running through statewide races, money, and late-breaking controversies.
They debate the DFL U.S. Senate primary between Congresswoman Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, citing heavy outside spending, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing Craig narrowly ahead, and turnout differences by age. Becky gives Craig a slight edge while Michael predicts Flanagan and argues the primary likely decides the seat.
On the GOP side, they discuss Michelle Tafoya’s large polling lead for U.S. Senate. Still, Michael warns she is unprepared for the general election and criticizes Farmfest for excluding endorsed candidate Adam Schwarze. They predict the GOP governor primary as extremely close, with Becky backing Lisa Demuth and Michael giving a slight edge to Mike Lindell amid party infighting, a late residency letter to the secretary of state, and an op-ed highlighting past domestic violence allegations.
The episode closes with quick calls on other races, including both hosts picking Scott Jensen for GOP state auditor and Tad Jude for GOP secretary of state.
The Break Down with Brodkorb and Becky will be LIVE on Facebook, X, and YouTube on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, with analysis and commentary on the Primary Election results starting at 8 PM.
00:00 — Welcome, Preview, and Primary Week Uncertainty: Opening remarks, a preview of the episode, and a frank assessment of what to expect from primary week turnout and the unpredictability of the race.
02:10 — DFL Senate Predictions, New Poll, and Demographics: Turnout facts and expectations, DFL Senate primary predictions, a breakdown of the latest poll, and what demographic data reveals about the Craig-Flanagan race.
12:08 — GOP Senate Poll, Debate Drama, and GOP Senate Controversy: A snapshot of GOP Senate polling, a breakdown of the debate drama, and a discussion of the personal controversy surrounding Michele Tafoya.
25:08 — GOP Governor Poll, Why Demuth or Lindell Might Win, and Turnout: The latest GOP governor polling, the case for why Mike Lindell could pull off a win, and how turnout models affect the race.
37:39 — Endorsement History, Residency Letter Drama, and Chair Critique: A look at endorsement history and its predictive value, the Lindell residency letter drama, and criticism of Republican Party of Minnesota Chairman Alex Plechash’s handling of the situation.
47:13 — Fenton Op-Ed Fallout and Strategy and Timing: A breakdown of the Fenton op-ed fallout and a broader discussion of campaign strategy and timing heading into primary day.
55:50 — DFL Primary Check-In, State Auditor Picks, and Secretary of State: A final DFL primary check-in, host picks for the state auditor race, and a look at the secretary of state contest.
01:01:57 — Turnout Forecast and Sign Off: A final turnout forecast, closing predictions, and sign-off ahead of primary day.
The Break Down with Brodkorb and Becky will be LIVE on Facebook, X, and YouTube on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, with analysis and commentary on the Primary Election results starting at 8 PM.
Get full access to On The Record with Michael Brodkorb at michaelbrodkorb.substack.com/subscribe